Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians · Unified (V2)

Sep 4, 2026, 7:45 PM EST

Game summary

Final

Detroit Tigers 3 – 4 Cleveland Guardians

Length

2h 51m · 10 innings

Market at first pitch

away contract opened at 42% (underdog)

Winner vs. opening market

Cleveland Guardians won — the opening favorite

of the game's market movement tracked a real swing

coincided with a real high-drama play (no score change)

moved opposite a real game swing

distinct market moments (away)

Team:

full game: -1.5 points net for polymarket away · 83% of scored plays confirmed base state structurally

Block type:

Inning:

Explain each block

showing all innings · shift-click an inning to extend the range · drag the dial or use Prev/Next to step through blocks

Block 1 of 48

kalshi · away contract07:47 PM – 07:49 PM

Top 1 · 2 out

sustained fall44% → 38%

price went from 44% to 38% — a net change of -6.0pp (percentage points of the contract's own price) over 2m (2 price observations)

reached as far as +6.0pp at its peak, then gave back 0% of that peak by the block's end (reversion of +0.0pp)

data quality: complete

no scoring context

real plays happened during this block, but none were high-drama or changed the score/lead -- the market moved with no notable event to compare against

13 play state(s) in window · differential moved +0

Real plays during this block (3)

07:47 PM30-0Lee grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Torres out at second.

07:47 PM30-0McGonigle singled to left.

07:48 PM30-0Valencia grounded out to third.

Contract

kalshi · away

Inning

Top 1

Score at block start

0-0

Base state at block start

1st

kalshi (away team price)real score/lead change (dot size = leverage)aligned with gameopposed to game

Market moments by inning (9 total)

Every sustained price swing on the chart above, grouped by the inning it happened in and read as one story even when multiple providers each detected their own version of it. Score and base state are shown directly on each card. Click a moment to zoom the chart to it.

Inning 1

0-0

Inning 2

0-0 → 2-0

Inning 3

2-0

Inning 4

2-0 → 3-0

Inning 6

3-1

Inning 8

3-3

Inning 9

3-3

Inning 10

3-3

Summary

9 distinct market moments for the away side, fused from 29 raw per-provider trend chains and 195 1-minute market blocks.
7% of blocks tracked a real score/lead change, 3% coincided with a real high-drama play with no score change, 0% moved against the game, and the rest (90%) drifted with no notable event to compare against.
83% of this game's 103 scored plays (85 of them) had their base-runner state read directly from ESPN's structural data, not inferred from text — every other row in the game (pitches, at-bat markers) correctly inherits that same state rather than needing its own read. 18 scored play(s) had no readable base state from either source (a genuine ESPN coverage gap).

analysis market-v2-alpha-1:replay-b0b48e1fa488 · descriptive only, never a causal claim.