Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals · V1 (legacy)
Sep 3, 2026, 7:40 PM EST · final score 3-7 · duration 2h 36m · 84 plays · 625 snapshots · 14 inflection points (through the last real play, inning 9 — nothing after the game actually ended is tradeable)
Team:
Each real market move is detected once per side of the binary contract (home up = away down) — showing inflection points referenced to the away team's contract.
Inning:
showing all innings · shift-click an inning to extend the range
kalshi (away team price)polymarket (away team price)inflection point
Inflection points (7)
08:27:00 PM · inning 3 (early) · 2 out
Triggering play: BATTER_TRIPLE · 1 run(s) scored · scoring shape: scored_other · leverage 0.25
kalshi+6.5%overreaction_reversion
polymarket+6.0%overreaction_reversion
Leader: kalshi (10s lag)
08:30:00 PM · inning 3 (early) · 3 out
lead change
Triggering play: BATTER_DOUBLE · 1 run(s) scored · scoring shape: single_play · leverage 0.90
kalshi+15.0%partial_reversion
polymarket+15.0%sustained_move
Leader: kalshi
08:33:00 PM · inning 4 (mid) · 0 out
lead change
Triggering play: BATTER_HOME_RUN · 1 run(s) scored · scoring shape: single_play · leverage 1.00
kalshi-4.0%delayed_continuation
polymarket-3.0%sustained_move
Leader: kalshi (13s lag)
08:58:00 PM · inning 5 (mid) · 1 out
lead change
Triggering play: BATTER_HOME_RUN · 2 run(s) scored · scoring shape: scored_other · leverage 1.00
kalshi-2.0%overreaction_reversion
Leader: kalshi
08:59:09 PM · inning 5 (mid) · 1 out
lead change
Triggering play: BATTER_HOME_RUN · 2 run(s) scored · scoring shape: scored_other · leverage 1.00
polymarket-2.0%overreaction_reversion
Leader: polymarket
09:47:00 PM · inning 8 (late) · 3 out
lead change
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 1.00
kalshi-4.0%delayed_continuation
polymarket-3.0%sustained_move
Leader: kalshi (9s lag) · gap closed 100%
09:59:00 PM · inning 8 (late) · 1 out
Triggering play: BATTER_DOUBLE · 1 run(s) scored · scoring shape: scored_other · leverage 0.14
kalshi-2.0%delayed_continuation
polymarket-1.8%delayed_continuation
Leader: kalshi
Play-by-play (84 real plays)
07:40:56 PMT11-0Hernández homered to left center (389 feet).
07:42:17 PMT11-0Stowers struck out swinging.
07:44:11 PMT11-0Lopez walked.
07:45:05 PMT11-0Conine flied out to left.
07:46:57 PMT11-0Sanoja singled to left, Lopez thrown out at home.
07:50:02 PMB11-0Jensen flied out to center.
07:51:28 PMB11-0Witt Jr. flied out to center.
07:52:17 PMB11-0Caglianone flied out to right.
07:54:54 PMT21-0Marsee doubled to right.
07:55:44 PMT21-0Ramírez grounded out to second, Marsee to third.
07:57:10 PMT22-0Mack singled to right, Marsee scored.
07:58:25 PMT22-0Pauley grounded out to catcher, Mack to second.
08:00:49 PMT22-0Hernández fouled out to third.
08:03:44 PMB22-0Perez grounded out to shortstop.
08:05:24 PMB22-0Pasquantino grounded out to second.
08:06:37 PMB22-0Massey singled to center.
08:08:58 PMB22-0Rojas fouled out to first.
08:13:08 PMT32-0Stowers doubled to center.
08:14:38 PMT32-0Lopez popped out to third.
08:16:07 PMT32-0Conine struck out swinging.
08:19:05 PMT32-0Sanoja walked.
08:19:41 PMT32-0Marsee flied out to right.
08:23:44 PMB32-0Collins popped out to shortstop.
08:24:56 PMB32-0Isbel singled to right.
08:26:27 PMB32-1Jensen tripled to center, Isbel scored.
08:27:33 PMB32-1Witt Jr. grounded out to second.
08:28:50 PMB32-2Caglianone doubled to right, Jensen scored.
08:30:21 PMB32-2Perez struck out looking.
08:32:53 PMT43-2Ramírez homered to center (426 feet).
08:34:28 PMT43-2Mack struck out swinging.
08:35:01 PMT43-2Pauley flied out to left.
08:38:04 PMT43-2Hernández flied out to center.
08:41:24 PMB43-2Pasquantino lined out to center.
08:42:32 PMB43-2Massey grounded out to shortstop.
08:45:01 PMB43-2Rojas flied out to center.
08:47:51 PMT53-2Stowers struck out swinging.
08:48:45 PMT53-2Lopez flied out to right.
08:49:57 PMT53-2Conine struck out swinging.
08:55:03 PMB53-2Collins flied out to center.
08:57:04 PMB53-2Isbel singled to right.
08:57:45 PMB53-4Jensen homered to right center (440 feet), Isbel scored.
08:59:47 PMB53-4Witt Jr. walked.
09:01:08 PMB53-4Witt Jr. caught stealing second, catcher to shortstop.
09:03:58 PMB53-4Caglianone grounded out to third.
09:06:16 PMT63-4Sanoja popped out to shortstop.
09:07:35 PMT63-4Marsee struck out, Marsee to first on wild pitch by Wacha.
09:10:22 PMT63-4Ramírez struck out swinging.
09:13:34 PMT63-4Mack fouled out to third.
09:16:16 PMB63-4Perez flied out to right.
09:17:50 PMB63-4Pasquantino struck out swinging.
09:18:58 PMB63-4Massey flied out to right.
09:20:00 PMT73-4Kimbrel relieved Wacha
09:23:16 PMT73-4Pauley flied out to right.
09:25:18 PMT73-4Hernández struck out looking. Kansas City Royals challenged: call on the field was overturned.
09:29:08 PMT73-4Stowers hit by pitch.
09:31:38 PMT73-4Pearson relieved Kimbrel
09:36:12 PMT73-4Lopez popped out to second.
09:37:24 PMB73-4Gibson relieved Alcantara
09:38:40 PMB73-4Loftin hit for Rojas
09:39:32 PMB73-4Loftin struck out looking.
09:40:12 PMB73-4Collins popped out to first.
09:41:19 PMB73-4Isbel struck out swinging.
09:42:35 PMT83-4Loftin at third base.
09:45:37 PMT83-4Conine struck out swinging.
09:46:38 PMT83-4Sanoja grounded out to third.
09:47:30 PMT83-4Marsee grounded out to first.
09:52:28 PMB83-4Jensen doubled to right.
09:55:18 PMB83-4De Los Santos at first base.
09:55:18 PMB83-4Zuber relieved Gibson
09:56:48 PMB83-4Witt Jr. grounded out to second, Jensen to third.
09:57:36 PMB83-5Caglianone singled to center, Jensen scored.
09:58:59 PMB83-6Perez doubled to left, Caglianone scored.
10:01:44 PMB83-6Tolbert ran for Perez
10:01:44 PMB83-6Fulton relieved Zuber
10:01:44 PMB83-6Tolbert stole third. Miami Marlins challenged: call on the field was upheld.
10:04:04 PMB83-7Pasquantino doubled to right, Tolbert scored.
10:04:36 PMB83-7Massey lined out to center.
10:05:19 PMB83-7Loftin singled to right, Pasquantino to third.
10:07:31 PMB83-7Collins struck out swinging.
10:08:51 PMT93-7Caglianone at first base.
10:08:51 PMT93-7Tolbert in right field.
10:08:51 PMT93-7Cruz relieved Pearson
10:11:03 PMT93-7Ramírez flied out to right.
10:13:04 PMT93-7Mack struck out swinging.