Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals · Unified (V2)

Sep 3, 2026, 7:40 PM EST

Game summary

Final

Miami Marlins 3 – 7 Kansas City Royals

Length

2h 36m · 9 innings

Market at first pitch

away contract opened at 48% (underdog)

Winner vs. opening market

Kansas City Royals won — the opening favorite

13%

of the game's market movement tracked a real swing

10%

coincided with a real high-drama play (no score change)

moved opposite a real game swing

distinct market moments (away)

Team:

full game: -47.0 points net for kalshi away · 93% of scored plays confirmed base state structurally

Block type:

Inning:

Explain each block

showing all innings · shift-click an inning to extend the range · drag the dial or use Prev/Next to step through blocks

Block 1 of 44

kalshi · away contract07:40 PM – 07:41 PM

inning unknown at this point

material impulse48% → 56%

price went from 48% to 56% — a net change of +9.0pp (percentage points of the contract's own price) over 1m (1 price observations)

reached as far as +9.0pp at its peak, then gave back 0% of that peak by the block's end (reversion of +0.0pp)

data quality: complete

notable play no score

a real, high-drama play happened during this block (V1's own high-impact bar) but it didn't change the score or the lead -- e.g. a caught stealing or a diving catch

5 play state(s) in window · 2 scored · 1 lead change(s)

In the game during this block

leverage 0.50 (no_prior_state)

“First run of the game, top of the inning 1 (Miami Marlins 0-0 Kansas City Royals)”

leverage 0.90 (lead_change)

“Miami Marlins takes the lead 1-0, top of the inning 1”

Real plays during this block (1)

07:40 PM51-0Hernández homered to left center (389 feet).

Contract

kalshi · away

Inning

unknown

Score at block start

—

Base state at block start

unknown

kalshi (away team price)real score/lead change (dot size = leverage)aligned with gameopposed to game

Market moments by inning (7 total)

Every sustained price swing on the chart above, grouped by the inning it happened in and read as one story even when multiple providers each detected their own version of it. Score and base state are shown directly on each card. Click a moment to zoom the chart to it.

Inning 1

1-0

Inning 2

1-0 → 2-0

Inning 3

2-0 → 2-1

Inning 4

2-2 → 3-2

Inning 5

3-2 → 3-4

Inning 6

3-4

Inning 8

3-4

Summary

7 distinct market moments for the away side, fused from 23 raw per-provider trend chains and 171 1-minute market blocks.
13% of blocks tracked a real score/lead change, 10% coincided with a real high-drama play with no score change, 0% moved against the game, and the rest (77%) drifted with no notable event to compare against.
93% of this game's 85 scored plays (79 of them) had their base-runner state read directly from ESPN's structural data, not inferred from text — every other row in the game (pitches, at-bat markers) correctly inherits that same state rather than needing its own read. 6 scored play(s) had no readable base state from either source (a genuine ESPN coverage gap).

analysis market-v2-alpha-1:replay-9bbdff69608d · descriptive only, never a causal claim.