San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds · V1 (legacy)
Sep 2, 2026, 12:40 PM EST · final score 3-7 · duration 2h 54m · 85 plays · 697 snapshots · 11 inflection points (through the last real play, inning 9 — nothing after the game actually ended is tradeable)
Team:
Each real market move is detected once per side of the binary contract (home up = away down) — showing inflection points referenced to the away team's contract.
Inning:
showing all innings · shift-click an inning to extend the range
kalshi (away team price)polymarket (away team price)inflection point
Inflection points (6)
12:48:00 PM · inning 1 (early) · 2 out
lead change
Triggering play: BATTER_HOME_RUN · 2 run(s) scored · scoring shape: scored_other · leverage 0.90
kalshi+1.0%delayed_continuation
polymarket-2.0%sustained_move
Leader: kalshi (10s lag)
01:17:10 PM · inning 2 (early) · 1 out
lead change
Triggering play: BATTER_HOME_RUN · 3 run(s) scored · scoring shape: scored_other · leverage 0.90
kalshi+4.5%sustained_move
polymarket+4.0%delayed_continuation
Leader: kalshi (10s lag)
02:16:00 PM · inning 6 (mid) · 0 out
lead change
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 1.00
kalshi-15.0%delayed_continuation
polymarket-7.0%delayed_continuation
Leader: kalshi (10s lag)
02:27:09 PM · inning 6 (mid) · 0 out
lead change
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 1.00
polymarket+3.0%partial_reversion
Leader: polymarket
02:53:00 PM · inning 7 (late) · 3 out
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 0.20
kalshi-2.5%partial_reversion
polymarket-2.0%partial_reversion
Leader: kalshi (9s lag) · gap closed 60%
03:07:00 PM · inning 7 (late) · 3 out
Triggering play: BATTER_HOME_RUN · 2 run(s) scored · scoring shape: single_play · leverage 0.20
kalshi-1.0%delayed_continuation
Leader: kalshi
Play-by-play (85 real plays)
12:42:09 PMT10-0Tatis Jr. singled to center.
12:42:57 PMT10-0Taylor bunt popped out to pitcher.
12:43:55 PMT10-0Merrill flied out to left.
12:46:07 PMT12-0France homered to left (353 feet), Tatis Jr. scored.
12:47:58 PMT12-0Bogaerts singled to left.
12:48:57 PMT12-0Salas flied out to center.
12:51:31 PMB12-0Rodríguez flied out to left.
12:53:25 PMB12-0De La Cruz singled to right.
12:56:33 PMB12-0Stewart grounded out to shortstop, De La Cruz to second.
12:57:27 PMB12-0Bleday fouled out to catcher.
01:01:01 PMT22-0Hays doubled to right.
01:03:34 PMT22-0Campusano struck out swinging.
01:04:25 PMT22-0Cronenworth fouled out to left.
01:06:03 PMT23-0Tatis Jr. singled to left, Hays scored.
01:08:22 PMT23-0Taylor walked, Tatis Jr. to second.
01:10:11 PMT23-0Merrill flied out to left.
01:13:43 PMB23-0Stephenson walked.
01:15:04 PMB23-0Myers singled to center, Stephenson to second.
01:16:34 PMB23-3Brito homered to right (360 feet), Stephenson scored and Myers scored.
01:18:39 PMB23-3McLain struck out looking.
01:20:49 PMB23-3Arroyo flied out to right.
01:22:39 PMB23-4Rodríguez homered to right center (371 feet).
01:24:48 PMB23-4De La Cruz struck out swinging.
01:27:48 PMT33-4France singled to left.
01:28:31 PMT33-4Bogaerts grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, France out at second.
01:29:35 PMT33-4Salas grounded out to second.
01:34:23 PMB33-4Stewart lined out to center.
01:35:06 PMB33-4Bleday doubled to right.
01:36:06 PMB33-4Stephenson grounded out to second, Bleday to third.
01:40:04 PMB33-4Myers struck out swinging.
01:43:41 PMT43-4Hays struck out looking. San Diego Padres challenged: call on the field was upheld.
01:45:51 PMT43-4Campusano struck out swinging.
01:47:19 PMT43-4Cronenworth grounded out to second.
01:50:52 PMB43-4Brito flied out to left.
01:52:40 PMB43-4McLain struck out swinging.
01:55:11 PMB43-4Arroyo grounded out to shortstop.
02:00:27 PMT53-4Tatis Jr. struck out swinging.
02:01:54 PMT53-4Taylor grounded out to shortstop.
02:02:31 PMT53-4Merrill grounded out to first.
02:03:31 PMB53-4Peralta relieved Mize
02:06:35 PMB53-4Rodríguez struck out swinging.
02:07:22 PMB53-4De La Cruz lined out to center.
02:09:37 PMB53-4Stewart grounded out to shortstop.
02:14:07 PMT63-4France walked.
02:15:48 PMT63-4Bogaerts reached on infield single to third, France to second.
02:17:20 PMT63-4Salas struck out swinging.
02:17:51 PMT63-4P. Johnson relieved Williamson
02:19:53 PMT63-4Harris hit for Hays
02:20:44 PMT63-4Harris struck out swinging.
02:24:26 PMT63-4Campusano flied out to center.
02:25:48 PMB63-4Harris in right field.
02:26:44 PMB63-4Bleday reached on bunt single to second.
02:29:12 PMB63-4Stephenson lined out to third.
02:32:03 PMB63-4Morgan relieved Peralta
02:33:52 PMB63-4Myers singled to center, Bleday to second.
02:37:38 PMB63-4Brito walked, Myers to second, Bleday to third.
02:40:11 PMB63-5McLain hit sacrifice fly to right, Bleday scored, Myers to third.
02:43:25 PMB63-5Hart relieved Morgan
02:43:25 PMB63-5Brito stole second.
02:45:00 PMB63-5Arroyo grounded out to shortstop.
02:45:30 PMT73-5Antone relieved P. Johnson
02:48:52 PMT73-5Cronenworth walked.
02:51:22 PMT73-5Tatis Jr. struck out swinging, Cronenworth caught stealing second, catcher to second.
02:54:42 PMT73-5Taylor struck out looking.
02:58:09 PMB73-5Rodríguez grounded out to second.
03:01:15 PMB73-5De La Cruz singled to center.
03:02:29 PMB73-5Brito relieved Hart
03:04:50 PMB73-5Stewart flied out to right.
03:06:07 PMB73-7Bleday homered to right (416 feet), De La Cruz scored.
03:07:53 PMB73-7Stephenson struck out swinging.
03:08:28 PMT83-7Santillan relieved Antone
03:11:55 PMT83-7Merrill lined out to center.
03:12:31 PMT83-7France grounded out to third.
03:14:27 PMT83-7Bogaerts walked.
03:16:44 PMT83-7Salas struck out looking.
03:19:35 PMB83-7Myers singled to center.
03:21:02 PMB83-7Brito struck out swinging.
03:22:05 PMB83-7McLain grounded into fielder's choice to third, Myers safe at second on error by second baseman Tatis Jr., Myers safe at third on error.
03:24:39 PMB83-7Arroyo grounded into fielder's choice to first, McLain to second, Myers out at home in rundown.
03:26:15 PMB83-7Rodríguez flied out to left.
03:28:43 PMT93-7Friedl in left field.
03:28:43 PMT93-7Bleday in right field.
03:28:43 PMT93-7Pagán relieved Santillan
03:30:24 PMT93-7Harris grounded out to second.
03:31:25 PMT93-7Campusano popped out to first.