San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds · Unified (V2)

Sep 2, 2026, 12:40 PM EST

Game summary

Final

San Diego Padres 3 – 7 Cincinnati Reds

Length

2h 54m · 9 innings

Market at first pitch

away contract opened at 61% (favorite)

Winner vs. opening market

Cincinnati Reds won — the opening underdog

11%

of the game's market movement tracked a real swing

coincided with a real high-drama play (no score change)

moved opposite a real game swing

distinct market moments (away)

Team:

full game: -60.0 points net for kalshi away · 95% of scored plays confirmed base state structurally

Block type:

Inning:

Explain each block

showing all innings · shift-click an inning to extend the range · drag the dial or use Prev/Next to step through blocks

Block 1 of 44

kalshi · away contract12:40 PM – 12:46 PM

inning unknown at this point

stable period61% → 60%

price went from 61% to 60% — a net change of -0.5pp (percentage points of the contract's own price) over 6m (6 price observations)

reached as far as +1.0pp at its peak, then gave back 50% of that peak by the block's end (reversion of +0.5pp)

data quality: complete

no scoring context

real plays happened during this block, but none were high-drama or changed the score/lead -- the market moved with no notable event to compare against

21 play state(s) in window · 1 scored

In the game during this block

leverage 0.50 (no_prior_state)

“First run of the game, top of the inning 1 (San Diego Padres 0-0 Cincinnati Reds)”

Real plays during this block (3)

12:42 PM30-0Tatis Jr. singled to center.

12:42 PM20-0Taylor bunt popped out to pitcher.

12:43 PM20-0Merrill flied out to left.

Contract

kalshi · away

Inning

unknown

Score at block start

—

Base state at block start

unknown

kalshi (away team price)real score/lead change (dot size = leverage)aligned with gameopposed to game

Market moments by inning (11 total)

Every sustained price swing on the chart above, grouped by the inning it happened in and read as one story even when multiple providers each detected their own version of it. Score and base state are shown directly on each card. Click a moment to zoom the chart to it.

Inning 1

0-0 → 2-0

Inning 2

2-0 → 3-4

Inning 3

3-4

Inning 4

3-4

Inning 5

3-4

Inning 6

3-4 → 3-5

Inning 7

3-5 → 3-7

Summary

11 distinct market moments for the away side, fused from 38 raw per-provider trend chains and 174 1-minute market blocks.
11% of blocks tracked a real score/lead change, 6% coincided with a real high-drama play with no score change, 0% moved against the game, and the rest (83%) drifted with no notable event to compare against.
95% of this game's 86 scored plays (82 of them) had their base-runner state read directly from ESPN's structural data, not inferred from text — every other row in the game (pitches, at-bat markers) correctly inherits that same state rather than needing its own read. 4 scored play(s) had no readable base state from either source (a genuine ESPN coverage gap).

analysis market-v2-alpha-1:replay-52ecf505da47 · descriptive only, never a causal claim.