Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros · Unified (V2)

Sep 5, 2026, 7:15 PM EST

Game summary

Final

Arizona Diamondbacks 4 – 3 Houston Astros

Length

3h 17m · 10 innings

Market at first pitch

away contract opened at 51% (favorite)

Winner vs. opening market

Arizona Diamondbacks won — the opening favorite

of the game's market movement tracked a real swing

coincided with a real high-drama play (no score change)

moved opposite a real game swing

distinct market moments (away)

Team:

full game: +37.5 points net for kalshi away · 94% of scored plays confirmed base state structurally

Block type:

Inning:

Explain each block

showing all innings · shift-click an inning to extend the range · drag the dial or use Prev/Next to step through blocks

Block 1 of 61

kalshi · away contract07:20 PM – 07:21 PM

Top 1 · 1 out

material impulse55% → 52%

price went from 55% to 52% — a net change of -3.0pp (percentage points of the contract's own price) over 1m (1 price observations)

reached as far as +3.0pp at its peak, then gave back 0% of that peak by the block's end (reversion of +0.0pp)

data quality: complete

no scoring context

real plays happened during this block, but none were high-drama or changed the score/lead -- the market moved with no notable event to compare against

3 play state(s) in window · differential moved +0

Real plays during this block (1)

07:20 PM20-0Perdomo flied out to left.

Contract

kalshi · away

Inning

Top 1

Score at block start

0-0

Base state at block start

1st

kalshi (away team price)real score/lead change (dot size = leverage)aligned with gameopposed to game

Market moments by inning (13 total)

Every sustained price swing on the chart above, grouped by the inning it happened in and read as one story even when multiple providers each detected their own version of it. Score and base state are shown directly on each card. Click a moment to zoom the chart to it.

Inning 1

0-0

Inning 3

0-0

Inning 4

0-2

Inning 5

0-2 → 1-3

Inning 6

1-3

Inning 7

1-3 → 2-3

Inning 9

3-3 → 4-3

Inning 10

4-3

Summary

13 distinct market moments for the away side, fused from 36 raw per-provider trend chains and 248 1-minute market blocks.
7% of blocks tracked a real score/lead change, 7% coincided with a real high-drama play with no score change, 0% moved against the game, and the rest (86%) drifted with no notable event to compare against.
94% of this game's 96 scored plays (90 of them) had their base-runner state read directly from ESPN's structural data, not inferred from text — every other row in the game (pitches, at-bat markers) correctly inherits that same state rather than needing its own read. 6 scored play(s) had no readable base state from either source (a genuine ESPN coverage gap).

analysis market-v2-alpha-1:replay-46588950067f · descriptive only, never a causal claim.