Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals · Unified (V2)

Sep 2, 2026, 7:40 PM EST

Game summary

Final

Miami Marlins 9 – 6 Kansas City Royals

Length

3h 5m · 9 innings

Market at first pitch

away contract opened at 47% (underdog)

Winner vs. opening market

Miami Marlins won — the opening underdog

19%

of the game's market movement tracked a real swing

coincided with a real high-drama play (no score change)

moved opposite a real game swing

distinct market moments (away)

Team:

full game: +52.0 points net for kalshi away · 98% of scored plays confirmed base state structurally

Block type:

Inning:

Explain each block

showing all innings · shift-click an inning to extend the range · drag the dial or use Prev/Next to step through blocks

Block 1 of 50

kalshi · away contract07:42 PM – 07:44 PM

Top 1 · 0 out

sustained rise49% → 70%

price went from 49% to 70% — a net change of +21.0pp (percentage points of the contract's own price) over 2m (2 price observations)

reached as far as +21.0pp at its peak, then gave back 0% of that peak by the block's end (reversion of +0.0pp)

data quality: complete

aligned

the team that benefited from this block's price direction is the same team the game actually favored over this window

11 play state(s) in window · 2 scored · 1 lead change(s) · differential moved -2

price direction favored away · game favored away

In the game during this block

leverage 0.90 (lead_change)

“Miami Marlins takes the lead 1-0, top of the inning 1”

leverage 0.15 (margin_widen_or_none)

“Miami Marlins extends the lead to 2, top of the inning 1 (2-0)”

Real plays during this block (2)

07:42 PM41-0Lopez tripled to left, Hernández scored.

07:43 PM32-0Stowers singled to center, Lopez scored.

Contract

kalshi · away

Inning

Top 1

Score at block start

0-0

Base state at block start

1st

kalshi (away team price)real score/lead change (dot size = leverage)aligned with gameopposed to game

Market moments by inning (10 total)

Every sustained price swing on the chart above, grouped by the inning it happened in and read as one story even when multiple providers each detected their own version of it. Score and base state are shown directly on each card. Click a moment to zoom the chart to it.

Inning 1

2-0 → 2-5

Inning 2

2-5 → 3-5

Inning 4

3-5 → 3-6

Inning 5

3-6 → 5-6

Inning 6

5-6 → 6-6

Inning 7

7-6

Inning 8

7-6 → 9-6

Summary

10 distinct market moments for the away side, fused from 36 raw per-provider trend chains and 198 1-minute market blocks.
19% of blocks tracked a real score/lead change, 2% coincided with a real high-drama play with no score change, 0% moved against the game, and the rest (79%) drifted with no notable event to compare against.
98% of this game's 102 scored plays (100 of them) had their base-runner state read directly from ESPN's structural data, not inferred from text — every other row in the game (pitches, at-bat markers) correctly inherits that same state rather than needing its own read. 2 scored play(s) had no readable base state from either source (a genuine ESPN coverage gap).

analysis market-v2-alpha-1:replay-25222c79a461 · descriptive only, never a causal claim.