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V1 (legacy)

Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels · Unified (V2)

Sep 19, 2026, 9:38 PM EST

Game summary

Final
Minnesota Twins 5 – 6 Los Angeles Angels
Length
3h 37m · 11 innings
Market at first pitch
away contract opened at 48% (underdog)
Winner vs. opening market
Los Angeles Angels won — the opening favorite
10%
of the game's market movement tracked a real swing
1%
coincided with a real high-drama play (no score change)
0%
moved opposite a real game swing
11
distinct market moments (away)
Team:
full game: -12.0 points net for kalshi away · 88% of scored plays confirmed base state structurally
Block type:
Inning:
showing all innings · shift-click an inning to extend the range · drag the dial or use Prev/Next to step through blocks
Block 1 of 57
0%25%50%75%100%09:38 PM10:05 PM10:32 PM10:59 PM11:26 PM11:53 PM12:20 AM12:48 AM01:15 AMtimes in EST1234567891011
kalshi · away contract09:38 PM – 09:48 PM
inning unknown at this point
stable period48% → 44%
price went from 48% to 44% — a net change of -3.5pp (percentage points of the contract's own price) over 10m (10 price observations)
reached as far as +4.0pp at its peak, then gave back 13% of that peak by the block's end (reversion of +0.5pp)
data quality: complete
no scoring context
real plays happened during this block, but none were high-drama or changed the score/lead -- the market moved with no notable event to compare against
40 play state(s) in window · 1 scored
In the game during this block
leverage 0.50 (no_prior_state)
“First run of the game, top of the inning 1 (Minnesota Twins 0-0 Los Angeles Angels)”
Real plays during this block (6)
09:39 PM20-0Keaschall popped out to second.
09:41 PM20-0Martin struck out swinging.
09:42 PM30-0Jeffers grounded out to second.
09:46 PM20-0Neto struck out swinging.
09:47 PM30-0Trout singled to right.
09:47 PM30-0Trout to second on passed ball by Jeffers.
Contract
kalshi · away
Inning
unknown
Score at block start
—
Base state at block start
unknown
kalshi (away team price)real score/lead change (dot size = leverage)aligned with gameopposed to game

Market moments by inning (11 total)

Every sustained price swing on the chart above, grouped by the inning it happened in and read as one story even when multiple providers each detected their own version of it. Score and base state are shown directly on each card. Click a moment to zoom the chart to it.

Inning 1

0-0

Inning 2

0-0 → 2-0

Inning 3

2-0 → 3-0

Inning 4

3-2 → 4-2

Inning 5

4-2

Inning 7

4-2

Inning 8

5-2 → 5-4

Inning 11

5-5

Summary

  • 11 distinct market moments for the away side, fused from 33 raw per-provider trend chains and 236 1-minute market blocks.
  • 10% of blocks tracked a real score/lead change, 1% coincided with a real high-drama play with no score change, 0% moved against the game, and the rest (89%) drifted with no notable event to compare against.
  • 88% of this game's 127 scored plays (112 of them) had their base-runner state read directly from ESPN's structural data, not inferred from text — every other row in the game (pitches, at-bat markers) correctly inherits that same state rather than needing its own read. 15 scored play(s) had no readable base state from either source (a genuine ESPN coverage gap).
analysis market-v2-alpha-1:replay-115abf3d3d68 · descriptive only, never a causal claim.