Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles · Unified (V2)

Sep 4, 2026, 7:05 PM EST

Game summary

Final

Boston Red Sox 1 – 0 Baltimore Orioles

Length

2h 35m · 9 innings

Market at first pitch

away contract opened at 52% (favorite)

Winner vs. opening market

Boston Red Sox won — the opening favorite

of the game's market movement tracked a real swing

coincided with a real high-drama play (no score change)

moved opposite a real game swing

distinct market moments (away)

Team:

full game: +44.5 points net for kalshi away · 95% of scored plays confirmed base state structurally

Block type:

Inning:

Explain each block

showing all innings · shift-click an inning to extend the range · drag the dial or use Prev/Next to step through blocks

Block 1 of 50

kalshi · away contract07:05 PM – 07:08 PM

inning unknown at this point

stable period52% → 52%

price went from 52% to 52% — a net change of +0.0pp (percentage points of the contract's own price) over 3m (3 price observations)

reached as far as +0.0pp at its peak, then gave back — of that peak by the block's end (reversion of +0.0pp)

data quality: complete

no game context

no play-state data falls inside this block's window at all (a coverage gap), so coherence can't be evaluated

0 play state(s) in window

Real plays during this block (0)

This is a 3m block with no play recorded in ESPN's feed at this exact moment (e.g. between pitches, a pitching change, or a broadcast pause) — not a data error.

Contract

kalshi · away

Inning

unknown

Score at block start

—

Base state at block start

unknown

kalshi (away team price)real score/lead change (dot size = leverage)aligned with gameopposed to game

Market moments by inning (9 total)

Every sustained price swing on the chart above, grouped by the inning it happened in and read as one story even when multiple providers each detected their own version of it. Score and base state are shown directly on each card. Click a moment to zoom the chart to it.

Inning 2

1-0

Inning 3

1-0

Inning 5

1-0

Inning 6

1-0

Inning 7

1-0

Inning 8

1-0

Summary

9 distinct market moments for the away side, fused from 29 raw per-provider trend chains and 178 1-minute market blocks.
0% of blocks tracked a real score/lead change, 2% coincided with a real high-drama play with no score change, 0% moved against the game, and the rest (98%) drifted with no notable event to compare against.
95% of this game's 80 scored plays (76 of them) had their base-runner state read directly from ESPN's structural data, not inferred from text — every other row in the game (pitches, at-bat markers) correctly inherits that same state rather than needing its own read. 4 scored play(s) had no readable base state from either source (a genuine ESPN coverage gap).

analysis market-v2-alpha-1:replay-f3ce22087476 · descriptive only, never a causal claim.