Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates · V1 (legacy)
Sep 20, 2026, 1:35 PM EST · final score 3-4 · duration 3h 3m · 89 plays · 731 snapshots · 17 inflection points (through the last real play, inning 9 — nothing after the game actually ended is tradeable)
Team:
Each real market move is detected once per side of the binary contract (home up = away down) — showing inflection points referenced to the away team's contract.
Inning:
showing all innings · shift-click an inning to extend the range
kalshi (away team price)polymarket (away team price)inflection point
Inflection points (8)
01:42:00 PM · inning 1 (early) · 1 out
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 0.50
kalshi-9.0%delayed_continuation
polymarket-5.0%delayed_continuation
Leader: kalshi (8s lag)
02:38:00 PM · inning 4 (mid) · 0 out
lead change
Triggering play: BATTER_HOME_RUN · 1 run(s) scored · scoring shape: single_play · leverage 1.00
kalshi+5.0%delayed_continuation
polymarket+5.0%delayed_continuation
Leader: kalshi (11s lag) · gap closed 0%
03:02:11 PM · inning 5 (mid) · 0 out
lead change
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 1.00
polymarket+5.0%overreaction_reversion
Leader: polymarket
03:27:00 PM · inning 6 (mid) · 0 out
lead change
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 1.00
kalshi+4.0%delayed_continuation
polymarket+2.0%delayed_continuation
Leader: kalshi (11s lag)
03:42:00 PM · inning 7 (late) · 2 out
lead change
Triggering play: BATTER_HOME_RUN · 2 run(s) scored · scoring shape: single_play · leverage 1.00
kalshi-1.0%sustained_move
polymarket+0.0%choppy_indeterminate
Leader: kalshi (12s lag)
04:05:00 PM · inning 7 (late) · 0 out
lead change
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 1.00
kalshi-2.0%overreaction_reversion
polymarket-2.0%sustained_move
Leader: kalshi (11s lag) · gap closed 100%
04:20:00 PM · inning 8 (late) · 0 out
lead change
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 1.00
kalshi-2.5%overreaction_reversion
polymarket-2.0%delayed_continuation
Leader: polymarket (-49s lag) · gap closed 96%
04:37:00 PM · inning 9 (final) · 3 out
lead change
Triggering play: BATTER_DOUBLE · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 1.00
kalshin/achoppy_indeterminate
Leader: kalshi
Play-by-play (89 real plays)
01:39:22 PMT10-0Garcia grounded out to second.
01:40:15 PMT10-0Witt Jr. reached on infield single to second.
01:41:23 PMT10-0Caglianone singled to right, Witt Jr. to third.
01:42:01 PMT11-0Perez singled to center, Witt Jr. scored, Caglianone to second.
01:45:37 PMT11-0Massey struck out swinging.
01:46:35 PMT11-0Loftin grounded out to pitcher.
01:49:17 PMB11-0Griffin flied out to center.
01:52:38 PMB11-0Lowe walked.
01:53:20 PMB11-0Reynolds singled to right, Lowe to second.
01:55:14 PMB11-0Cruz popped out to shortstop.
01:55:47 PMB11-0Gonzales flied out to right.
01:57:08 PMT21-0Ramírez relieved Bachar
02:00:14 PMT21-0Rave struck out swinging.
02:02:28 PMT21-0Maile struck out looking.
02:04:10 PMT21-0Tolbert grounded out to shortstop.
02:07:01 PMB21-0O'Hearn struck out swinging.
02:07:49 PMB21-0Flores Jr. doubled to left.
02:10:04 PMB21-0Horwitz struck out swinging.
02:11:58 PMB21-0Mangum lined out to left.
02:15:02 PMT31-0Garcia struck out swinging.
02:17:44 PMT31-0Witt Jr. struck out looking.
02:18:17 PMT31-0Caglianone singled to right.
02:19:40 PMT31-0Perez grounded out to second.
02:22:11 PMB31-0Griffin lined out to left.
02:23:33 PMB31-0Lowe struck out swinging.
02:24:26 PMB31-0Reynolds flied out to center.
02:25:35 PMT41-0Dotel relieved Ramírez
02:28:01 PMT41-0Massey lined out to center.
02:29:18 PMT41-0Loftin singled to left.
02:30:52 PMT41-0Loftin stole second.
02:32:27 PMT41-0Rave grounded out to second, Loftin to third.
02:34:43 PMT41-0Maile struck out swinging.
02:37:38 PMB41-1Cruz homered to center (420 feet).
02:38:32 PMB41-1Gonzales bunt popped out to pitcher.
02:38:57 PMB41-1O'Hearn popped out to shortstop.
02:40:49 PMB41-1Flores Jr. strikes out on automatic strike.
02:45:18 PMT51-1Tolbert popped out to third.
02:46:21 PMT51-1Garcia grounded out to third.
02:47:10 PMT51-1Witt Jr. lined out to right.
02:50:43 PMB51-1Horwitz lined out to first.
02:54:31 PMB51-1Mangum walked.
02:56:21 PMB51-1Griffin grounded into fielder's choice to third, Mangum safe at second on error by second baseman Massey.
02:59:57 PMB51-1Lowe popped out to third.
03:01:45 PMB51-1Reynolds struck out swinging.
03:02:54 PMT61-1Mlodzinski relieved Dotel
03:05:50 PMT61-1Caglianone lined out to left.
03:06:51 PMT61-1Perez singled to center.
03:08:53 PMT61-1Massey grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Perez out at second.
03:13:16 PMB61-1Cruz flied out to center.
03:16:45 PMB61-1Gonzales flied out to right.
03:19:14 PMB61-1O'Hearn walked.
03:23:54 PMB61-1Flores Jr. walked, O'Hearn to second.
03:25:52 PMB61-2Horwitz singled to center, O'Hearn scored, Flores Jr. to second.
03:26:28 PMB61-2Hoffman relieved Wacha
03:31:01 PMB61-2Mangum struck out looking.
03:35:36 PMT71-2Loftin popped out to first.
03:36:10 PMT71-2Rave reached on bunt single to third.
03:38:49 PMT71-2Maile grounded out to pitcher, Rave to second.
03:40:19 PMT71-2Pasquantino hit for Tolbert
03:41:51 PMT73-2Pasquantino homered to right center (390 feet), Rave scored.
03:42:59 PMT73-2Garcia grounded out to shortstop.
03:44:44 PMB73-2Isbel in center field.
03:44:44 PMB73-2Thomas relieved Hoffman
03:49:40 PMB73-2Griffin struck out swinging.
03:51:16 PMB73-2Lowe reached on infield single to third.
03:54:50 PMB73-2Reynolds walked, Lowe to second.
03:58:43 PMB73-2Cruz grounded out to first, Reynolds to second, Lowe to third.
03:59:10 PMB73-2Cuas relieved Thomas
04:03:28 PMB73-2Gonzales struck out swinging.
04:07:34 PMT83-2Witt Jr. grounded out to third.
04:09:38 PMT83-2Caglianone walked.
04:12:41 PMT83-2Perez struck out swinging.
04:13:40 PMT83-2Massey grounded out to first.
04:14:19 PMB83-2Pearson relieved Cuas
04:17:57 PMB83-2O'Hearn singled to center.
04:18:46 PMB83-2Simon ran for O'Hearn
04:20:05 PMB83-4Flores Jr. homered to left (426 feet), Simon scored.
04:21:53 PMB83-4Horwitz struck out looking. Kansas City Royals challenged: call on the field was overturned.
04:24:34 PMB83-4Mangum grounded out to first.
04:26:22 PMB83-4Griffin doubled to left.
04:28:38 PMB83-4Gose relieved Pearson
04:30:44 PMB83-4Lowe grounded out to pitcher.
04:33:00 PMT93-4Triolo at third base.
04:33:00 PMT93-4Simon as designated hitter.
04:33:00 PMT93-4Montgomery relieved Mlodzinski
04:33:00 PMT93-4Loftin grounded out to shortstop.
04:34:39 PMT93-4Rave struck out swinging.
04:35:50 PMT93-4Maile doubled to right, Maile safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Mangum.
04:36:00 PMT93-4Collins hit for Isbel