Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets · V1 (legacy)
Sep 15, 2026, 7:10 PM EST · final score 7-5 · duration 3h 27m · 111 plays · 827 snapshots · 32 inflection points (through the last real play, inning 11 — nothing after the game actually ended is tradeable)
Team:
Each real market move is detected once per side of the binary contract (home up = away down) — showing inflection points referenced to the away team's contract.
Inning:
showing all innings · shift-click an inning to extend the range
kalshi (away team price)polymarket (away team price)inflection point
Inflection points (16)
07:27:00 PM · inning 2 (early) · 0 out
lead change
Triggering play: BATTER_HOME_RUN · 1 run(s) scored · scoring shape: single_play · leverage 0.90
kalshi+8.5%delayed_continuation
polymarket+9.0%delayed_continuation
Leader: kalshi (13s lag) · gap closed 0%
07:31:00 PM · inning 2 (early) · 2 out
lead change
Triggering play: BATTER_HOME_RUN · 1 run(s) scored · scoring shape: single_play · leverage 0.90
kalshi-4.5%delayed_continuation
Leader: kalshi
07:48:00 PM · inning 2 (early) · 2 out
lead change
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 0.90
kalshi+5.0%partial_reversion
Leader: kalshi
07:58:00 PM · inning 3 (early) · 0 out
lead change
Triggering play: BATTER_HOME_RUN · 1 run(s) scored · scoring shape: scored_other · leverage 0.90
kalshi+3.0%delayed_continuation
polymarket+2.0%sustained_move
Leader: kalshi (14s lag)
08:22:10 PM · inning 5 (mid) · 0 out
lead change
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 1.00
polymarket-3.0%sustained_move
Leader: polymarket
09:38:00 PM · inning 9 (final) · 2 out
lead change
Triggering play: BATTER_HOME_RUN · 1 run(s) scored · scoring shape: scored_other · leverage 1.00
kalshi-8.0%delayed_continuation
Leader: kalshi
09:47:00 PM · inning 9 (final) · 1 out
lead change
Triggering play: BATTER_DOUBLE · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 1.00
kalshi+6.0%delayed_continuation
Leader: kalshi
09:48:11 PM · inning 9 (final) · 2 out
lead change
Triggering play: BATTER_DOUBLE · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 1.00
polymarket+5.0%sustained_move
Leader: polymarket
09:53:00 PM · inning 9 (final) · 0 out
lead change
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 1.00
kalshi+25.0%delayed_continuation
Leader: kalshi
09:57:00 PM · inning 10 (final) · 1 out
lead change
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 1.00
kalshi-6.0%delayed_continuation
polymarket+3.0%overreaction_reversion
Leader: kalshi (13s lag) · gap closed 67%
10:03:00 PM · inning 10 (final) · 0 out
lead change
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 1.00
kalshi-31.0%delayed_continuation
polymarket-29.0%delayed_continuation
Leader: kalshi (10s lag)
10:08:00 PM · inning 10 (final) · 2 out
lead change
Triggering play: BATTER_DOUBLE · 1 run(s) scored · scoring shape: scored_other · leverage 1.00
kalshi+19.0%delayed_continuation
polymarket+19.0%delayed_continuation
Leader: kalshi (10s lag) · gap closed 100%
10:11:00 PM · inning 10 (final) · 3 out
lead change
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 1.00
kalshi+11.0%delayed_continuation
Leader: kalshi
10:12:10 PM · inning 10 (final) · 0 out
lead change
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 1.00
polymarket-5.5%delayed_continuation
Leader: polymarket
10:17:00 PM · inning 11 (final) · 1 out
lead change
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 1.00
kalshi+6.5%overreaction_reversion
Leader: kalshi
10:24:00 PM · inning 11 (final) · 2 out
lead change
Triggering play: BATTER_HOME_RUN · 3 run(s) scored · scoring shape: scored_other · leverage 1.00
kalshi+4.0%overreaction_reversion
polymarket+1.0%overreaction_reversion
Leader: kalshi (13s lag) · gap closed 100%
Play-by-play (111 real plays)
07:11:47 PMT10-0Hinds struck out swinging.
07:12:33 PMT10-0Alonso grounded out to second.
07:13:59 PMT10-0Mayo flied out to left.
07:16:44 PMB10-0Lindor fouled out to third.
07:17:56 PMB10-0Soto singled to right.
07:19:05 PMB10-0Bichette singled to right, Soto to second.
07:21:05 PMB10-0Benge walked, Bichette to second, Soto to third.
07:21:59 PMB10-1Young hit sacrifice fly to center, Soto scored, Bichette to third.
07:23:52 PMB10-1Semien flied out to right.
07:26:35 PMT21-1Encarnacion-Strand homered to left center (389 feet).
07:28:40 PMT21-1Henderson struck out swinging.
07:30:14 PMT22-1Jackson homered to center (416 feet).
07:31:13 PMT22-1Pozo grounded out to third.
07:32:44 PMT22-1Taveras struck out swinging.
07:36:12 PMB22-1Ewing reached on bunt single to third.
07:38:42 PMB22-1Baty singled to center, Ewing to second.
07:41:23 PMB22-1Alvarez struck out swinging.
07:44:34 PMB22-1Lindor popped out to second.
07:47:16 PMB22-2Soto singled to center, Ewing scored, Baty to second.
07:50:32 PMB22-2Bichette grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Soto out at second.
07:52:59 PMT32-2Cowser grounded out to second.
07:54:34 PMT32-2Hinds struck out swinging.
07:55:22 PMT32-2Alonso flied out to right.
07:57:56 PMB32-3Benge homered to right (368 feet).
07:58:40 PMB32-3Young grounded out to second.
08:00:06 PMB32-3Semien flied out to right.
08:01:09 PMB32-3Ewing flied out to center.
08:04:35 PMT42-3Mayo reached on infield single to second.
08:05:18 PMT42-3Encarnacion-Strand fouled out to first.
08:06:28 PMT42-3Mayo stole second.
08:07:25 PMT42-3Henderson struck out swinging.
08:08:17 PMT42-3Jackson grounded out to first.
08:11:30 PMB42-3Baty flied out to left.
08:12:07 PMB42-3Alvarez grounded out to shortstop.
08:13:32 PMB42-3Lindor walked.
08:15:41 PMB42-3Soto struck out swinging.
08:18:47 PMT52-3Pozo singled to left.
08:20:01 PMT52-3Taveras struck out looking.
08:21:11 PMT52-3Cowser lined into double play, to first, Pozo doubled off first.
08:24:17 PMB52-3Bichette singled to left.
08:32:01 PMB52-3Wolfram relieved Baz
08:32:01 PMB52-3Bichette picked off and caught stealing second.
08:33:36 PMB52-3Benge struck out looking.
08:35:10 PMB52-3Young doubled to left.
08:37:05 PMB52-3Semien walked.
08:38:53 PMB52-3Ewing struck out looking. New York Mets challenged: call on the field was upheld.
08:42:44 PMT62-3Hinds grounded out to shortstop.
08:43:23 PMT62-3Warren relieved Manaea
08:46:33 PMT62-3Alonso struck out looking.
08:49:31 PMT62-3Mayo popped out to second.
08:51:57 PMB62-3Morel hit for Baty
08:51:57 PMB62-3De León relieved Wolfram
08:52:20 PMB62-3Morel grounded out to shortstop.
08:53:46 PMB62-3Alvarez flied out to right.
08:54:32 PMB62-3Lindor grounded out to pitcher. New York Mets challenged: call on the field was upheld.
08:57:46 PMT72-3Morel as designated hitter.
08:59:59 PMT72-3Encarnacion-Strand flied out to center.
09:00:34 PMT72-3Lavender relieved Warren
09:03:51 PMT72-3Henderson struck out looking. Baltimore Orioles challenged: call on the field was upheld.
09:06:18 PMT72-3Jackson struck out swinging.
09:10:03 PMB72-3Soto grounded out to first.
09:11:26 PMB72-3Bichette grounded out to first.
09:12:41 PMB72-3Benge struck out swinging.
09:15:16 PMT82-3Pozo flied out to right.
09:17:37 PMT82-3Taveras struck out swinging.
09:20:13 PMT82-3Cowser struck out swinging.
09:22:47 PMB82-3Nunez relieved De León
09:23:47 PMB82-3Young grounded out to first.
09:26:46 PMB82-3Semien safe at first on throwing error by second baseman Jackson.
09:27:40 PMB82-3Ewing singled to center, Ewing to second, Semien thrown out at third. Baltimore Orioles challenged: call on the field was overturned.
09:31:07 PMB82-3Morel grounded out to shortstop.
09:32:28 PMT92-3Senga relieved Lavender
09:33:43 PMT92-3Beavers hit for Hinds
09:35:17 PMT92-3Beavers fouled out to third.
09:36:41 PMT93-3Alonso homered to left center (414 feet).
09:38:54 PMT93-3Mayo struck out swinging.
09:41:04 PMT93-3Encarnacion-Strand struck out swinging.
09:42:42 PMB93-3Beavers in left field.
09:42:42 PMB93-3Garcia relieved Nunez
09:45:04 PMB93-3Alvarez fouled out to third.
09:46:39 PMB93-3Lindor doubled to right.
09:46:58 PMB93-3Soto intentionally walked.
09:48:45 PMB93-3Bichette grounded out to third, Soto to second, Lindor to third.
09:50:24 PMB93-3Walker relieved Garcia
09:52:27 PMB93-3Benge lined out to shortstop.
09:55:15 PMT103-3Duarte relieved Senga
09:55:15 PMT103-3Henderson singled to center, Encarnacion-Strand to third.
09:56:40 PMT104-3Encarnacion-Strand scored on Duarte wild pitch, Henderson to second.
09:59:12 PMT104-3Jackson struck out looking. Baltimore Orioles challenged: call on the field was upheld.
09:59:39 PMT104-3Kjerstad hit for Pozo
10:01:39 PMT104-3Kjerstad struck out looking.
10:02:54 PMT104-3Taveras grounded out to pitcher.
10:06:11 PMB104-3Narváez catching.
10:06:11 PMB104-3Hoppe relieved Walker
10:06:11 PMB104-3Young grounded out to first, Benge to third.
10:06:51 PMB104-4Semien doubled to left, Benge scored.
10:07:24 PMB104-4Ewing intentionally walked.
10:09:21 PMB104-4Morel grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Ewing out at second, Semien to third.
10:11:24 PMB104-4Alvarez struck out looking.
10:13:08 PMT114-4Pintaro relieved Duarte
10:16:13 PMT114-4Cowser flied out to left.
10:19:16 PMT114-4Beavers walked.
10:21:36 PMT114-4Alonso struck out swinging.
10:23:29 PMT117-4Mayo hit inside-the-park home run to left (410 feet), Taveras scored and Beavers scored.
10:24:30 PMT117-4Encarnacion-Strand singled to right.
10:25:41 PMT117-4Henderson struck out swinging.
10:27:23 PMB117-4Kittredge relieved Hoppe
10:30:31 PMB117-4Lindor flied out to center.
10:31:26 PMB117-4Soto grounded out to second, Alvarez to third.
10:32:51 PMB117-5Bichette singled to center, Alvarez scored.
10:36:44 PMB117-5Benge flied out to center.