San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds · V1 (legacy)
Sep 1, 2026, 6:40 PM EST · final score 3-4 · duration 2h 49m · 92 plays · 677 snapshots · 19 inflection points (through the last real play, inning 9 — nothing after the game actually ended is tradeable)
Team:
Each real market move is detected once per side of the binary contract (home up = away down) — showing inflection points referenced to the away team's contract.
Inning:
showing all innings · shift-click an inning to extend the range
kalshi (away team price)polymarket (away team price)inflection point
Inflection points (10)
07:17:00 PM · inning 3 (early) · 0 out
lead change
Triggering play: BATTER_TRIPLE · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 0.90
kalshi-8.0%overreaction_reversion
Leader: kalshi
07:29:00 PM · inning 3 (early) · 0 out
lead change
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 0.90
kalshi+5.0%delayed_continuation
Leader: kalshi
07:52:00 PM · inning 5 (mid) · 1 out
lead change
Triggering play: BATTER_HOME_RUN · 1 run(s) scored · scoring shape: scored_other · leverage 1.00
kalshi+3.5%overreaction_reversion
Leader: kalshi
07:53:14 PM · inning 5 (mid) · 1 out
lead change
Triggering play: BATTER_HOME_RUN · 1 run(s) scored · scoring shape: scored_other · leverage 1.00
polymarket-7.0%delayed_continuation
Leader: polymarket
08:08:00 PM · inning 5 (mid) · 2 out
lead change
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 1.00
kalshi+4.0%delayed_continuation
polymarket+3.0%delayed_continuation
Leader: polymarket (-50s lag) · gap closed 80%
08:37:00 PM · inning 7 (late) · 2 out
lead change
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 1.00
kalshi-8.5%sustained_move
Leader: kalshi
08:38:14 PM · inning 7 (late) · 0 out
lead change
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 1.00
polymarket-5.5%overreaction_reversion
Leader: polymarket
09:08:00 PM · inning 8 (late) · 0 out
lead change
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 1.00
kalshi+5.5%overreaction_reversion
polymarket+7.5%delayed_continuation
Leader: kalshi (18s lag) · gap closed 0%
09:12:00 PM · inning 8 (late) · 1 out
lead change
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 1.00
kalshi-19.5%partial_reversion
Leader: kalshi
09:15:11 PM · inning 8 (late) · 2 out
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 0.34
kalshi+3.0%overreaction_reversion
polymarket+3.0%overreaction_reversion
Leader: polymarket (-106s lag) · gap closed 100%
Play-by-play (92 real plays)
06:42:25 PMT10-0Tatis Jr. grounded out to shortstop.
06:45:36 PMT10-0Taylor tripled to left.
06:46:45 PMT11-0Machado hit sacrifice fly to right, Taylor scored.
06:47:59 PMT11-0France struck out swinging.
06:51:55 PMB11-0Rodríguez doubled to center.
06:53:06 PMB11-0De La Cruz struck out looking.
06:56:29 PMB11-0Stewart grounded out to second, Rodríguez to third.
06:57:49 PMB11-1Bleday singled to right, Rodríguez scored.
06:58:48 PMB11-1McLain flied out to left.
07:01:22 PMT21-1Merrill grounded out to shortstop.
07:03:10 PMT21-1Bogaerts walked.
07:03:51 PMT21-1Bogaerts stole second.
07:05:36 PMT21-1Hays struck out swinging.
07:06:28 PMT21-1Fermin flied out to center.
07:09:45 PMB21-1Trevino struck out looking.
07:10:23 PMB21-1Brito grounded out to first.
07:12:42 PMB21-1Friedl grounded out to second.
07:16:54 PMT31-1Bowen tripled to center.
07:19:10 PMT31-1Tatis Jr. grounded out to shortstop.
07:21:43 PMT31-1Taylor hit by pitch.
07:22:45 PMT31-1Taylor stole second.
07:23:47 PMT31-1Machado walked.
07:27:37 PMT31-1France grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Machado out at second.
07:30:14 PMB31-1Arroyo grounded out to second.
07:31:10 PMB31-1Rodríguez struck out swinging.
07:33:04 PMB31-1De La Cruz singled to center.
07:34:07 PMB31-1Stewart popped out to second.
07:36:57 PMT41-1Merrill singled to center.
07:38:08 PMT41-1Bogaerts flied out to center, Merrill to second.
07:39:41 PMT41-1Hays struck out swinging.
07:40:35 PMT41-1Fermin flied out to left.
07:43:26 PMB41-1Bleday lined out to right.
07:44:59 PMB41-1McLain popped out to second.
07:45:29 PMB41-1Trevino lined out to left.
07:49:56 PMT51-1Bowen struck out looking.
07:50:37 PMT52-1Tatis Jr. homered to right (347 feet).
07:52:55 PMT52-1Taylor singled to right.
07:55:18 PMT52-1Machado flied out to center.
07:56:04 PMT52-1Taylor picked off and caught stealing second.
07:59:31 PMB52-1Brito flied out to left.
08:01:34 PMB52-1Friedl walked.
08:03:42 PMB52-1Friedl caught stealing second, catcher to shortstop.
08:04:11 PMB52-1Arroyo hit a ground rule double.
08:07:16 PMB52-2Rodríguez singled to right, Arroyo scored, Rodríguez to second.
08:08:17 PMB52-2Rodriguez relieved Vásquez
08:11:25 PMB52-2De La Cruz flied out to center.
08:14:32 PMT62-2France lined out to right.
08:16:03 PMT62-2Merrill struck out swinging.
08:16:36 PMT62-2Bogaerts flied out to center.
08:20:17 PMB62-2Stewart reached on infield single to shortstop.
08:22:05 PMB62-2Bleday struck out looking.
08:23:49 PMB62-2McLain struck out swinging.
08:26:42 PMB62-2Trevino grounded out to third.
08:29:12 PMT72-2Mey relieved Lodolo
08:29:30 PMT72-2Harris hit for Hays
08:30:57 PMT72-2Harris walked.
08:32:02 PMT72-2Harris stole second.
08:32:43 PMT72-2Fermin reached first base on catcher's interference.
08:35:15 PMT72-2Bowen struck out swinging.
08:36:41 PMT72-2Tatis Jr. struck out swinging.
08:38:12 PMT72-2Taylor grounded into fielder's choice to third, Fermin out at second.
08:39:46 PMB72-2Harris as designated hitter.
08:39:46 PMB72-2Matsui relieved Rodriguez
08:42:32 PMB72-2Brito struck out swinging.
08:43:32 PMB72-2Myers hit for Friedl
08:46:47 PMB72-2Myers flied out to left.
08:48:53 PMB72-2Arroyo walked.
08:52:20 PMB72-2Rodríguez struck out swinging.
08:53:58 PMT82-2Myers in center field.
08:53:58 PMT82-2Burke relieved Mey
08:55:17 PMT82-2Machado struck out swinging.
08:56:57 PMT82-2France flied out to right.
08:59:52 PMT82-2Merrill doubled to right.
09:00:33 PMT82-2Bogaerts intentionally walked.
09:01:28 PMT82-2Campusano hit for Harris
09:02:12 PMT82-2Campusano struck out swinging.
09:04:19 PMB82-2Campusano as designated hitter.
09:04:19 PMB82-2Morejon relieved Matsui
09:06:52 PMB82-2De La Cruz walked.
09:08:01 PMB82-2Stewart singled to center, De La Cruz to third.
09:10:13 PMB82-2Bleday grounded out to second, Stewart to second.
09:11:36 PMB82-2McLain intentionally walked.
09:14:38 PMB82-3Trevino singled to center, De La Cruz scored, McLain to second, Stewart to third.
09:18:07 PMB82-4Brito hit sacrifice fly to left, Stewart scored.
09:18:56 PMB82-4Morgan relieved Morejon
09:21:02 PMB82-4Myers flied out to right.
09:23:20 PMT92-4Pagán relieved Burke
09:23:43 PMT92-4Song hit for Fermin
09:24:39 PMT92-4Song flied out to center.
09:24:56 PMT92-4Cronenworth hit for Bowen
09:25:56 PMT92-4Cronenworth flied out to left.
09:27:12 PMT93-4Tatis Jr. homered to right (361 feet).