Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins · V1 (legacy)
Sep 5, 2026, 4:10 PM EST · final score 6-5 · duration 3h 25m · 101 plays · 819 snapshots · 24 inflection points (through the last real play, inning 9 — nothing after the game actually ended is tradeable)
Team:
Each real market move is detected once per side of the binary contract (home up = away down) — showing inflection points referenced to the away team's contract.
Inning:
showing all innings · shift-click an inning to extend the range
kalshi (away team price)polymarket (away team price)inflection point
Inflection points (13)
04:18:00 PM · inning 1 (early) · 0 out
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 0.50
kalshi-2.0%overreaction_reversion
polymarket-3.5%overreaction_reversion
Leader: kalshi (24s lag)
04:34:11 PM · inning 2 (early) · 3 out
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 0.50
polymarket-2.5%partial_reversion
Leader: polymarket
04:47:15 PM · inning 3 (early) · 0 out
lead change
Triggering play: BATTER_HOME_RUN · 1 run(s) scored · scoring shape: single_play · leverage 0.90
polymarket+3.5%overreaction_reversion
Leader: polymarket
05:01:00 PM · inning 3 (early) · 2 out
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 0.20
kalshi-4.0%delayed_continuation
Leader: kalshi
05:02:16 PM · inning 3 (early) · 2 out
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 0.20
polymarket-3.5%delayed_continuation
Leader: polymarket
06:07:31 PM · inning 5 (mid) · 2 out
Triggering play: BATTER_HOME_RUN · 2 run(s) scored · scoring shape: single_play · leverage 0.38
kalshi-1.0%delayed_continuation
polymarket+1.5%overreaction_reversion
Leader: polymarket (-29s lag) · gap closed 0%
06:28:00 PM · inning 6 (mid) · 3 out
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 0.17
kalshi-3.0%overreaction_reversion
polymarket-2.0%overreaction_reversion
Leader: kalshi (17s lag) · gap closed 100%
06:50:00 PM · inning 7 (late) · 1 out
Triggering play: BATTER_HOME_RUN · 1 run(s) scored · scoring shape: single_play · leverage 0.34
kalshi+6.0%overreaction_reversion
polymarket+5.5%overreaction_reversion
Leader: kalshi (24s lag) · gap closed 100%
06:58:00 PM · inning 7 (late) · 0 out
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 0.34
kalshi-3.0%delayed_continuation
Leader: kalshi
06:59:15 PM · inning 7 (late) · 0 out
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 0.34
polymarket-5.0%sustained_move
Leader: polymarket
07:08:00 PM · inning 8 (late) · 1 out
Triggering play: BATTER_DOUBLE · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 0.34
kalshi+19.0%delayed_continuation
Leader: kalshi
07:12:00 PM · inning 8 (late) · 0 out
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 0.34
kalshi+3.0%delayed_continuation
Leader: kalshi
07:13:15 PM · inning 8 (late) · 0 out
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 0.34
polymarket+2.5%partial_reversion
Leader: polymarket
Play-by-play (101 real plays)
04:13:55 PMT10-0Crow-Armstrong walked.
04:14:50 PMT10-0Suzuki singled to left, Crow-Armstrong to second.
04:17:26 PMT10-0Busch strikes out on automatic strike.
04:17:43 PMT10-0Bregman grounded into double play, third to second to first, Suzuki out at second.
04:21:03 PMB10-0Stowers walked.
04:21:42 PMB10-0Hernández fouled out to first.
04:24:07 PMB10-0Conine walked, Stowers to second.
04:25:59 PMB10-0Lopez grounded into double play, third to second to first, Conine out at second.
04:30:17 PMT20-0Happ singled to right.
04:31:27 PMT20-0Hoerner singled to center, Hoerner to second, Happ thrown out at third.
04:33:02 PMT20-0Ramirez fouled out to third.
04:34:49 PMT20-0Hoerner caught stealing third, catcher to third.
04:39:03 PMB20-0Marsee lined out to left.
04:41:03 PMB20-0Caissie struck out swinging.
04:42:24 PMB20-0Mack grounded out to second.
04:46:18 PMT31-0Conforto homered to center (411 feet).
04:48:38 PMT31-0Amaya reached on infield single to third.
04:50:23 PMT31-0Crow-Armstrong struck out swinging.
04:54:08 PMT31-0Suzuki walked, Amaya to second.
04:55:10 PMT31-0Busch flied out to center.
04:57:28 PMT31-0Bregman hit by pitch, Suzuki to second, Amaya to third.
05:00:45 PMT33-0Happ singled to right, Amaya and Suzuki scored, Bregman to third.
05:02:25 PMT33-0Hoerner grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Happ out at second.
05:06:15 PMB33-0Pauley walked.
05:08:10 PMB33-0Sanoja grounded into double play, second to first, Pauley out at second.
05:09:24 PMB33-0Stowers reached on infield single to third.
05:11:55 PMB33-0Hernández struck out looking.
05:15:20 PMT43-0Ramirez lined out to left.
05:16:45 PMT43-0Conforto struck out looking.
05:17:40 PMT43-0Amaya doubled to left.
05:19:09 PMT44-0Crow-Armstrong singled to center, Amaya scored, Crow-Armstrong to second.
05:21:12 PMT44-0Suzuki struck out swinging.
05:25:24 PMB44-0Conine walked.
05:28:58 PMB44-0Lopez doubled to left, Conine to third.
05:32:06 PMB44-0Marsee walked. Chicago Cubs challenged: call on the field was upheld.
05:34:30 PMB44-1Caissie grounded into fielder's choice to second, Conine scored, Marsee out at second, Lopez to third.
05:38:09 PMB44-2Mack grounded into fielder's choice to left, Lopez scored, Caissie out at second.
05:40:58 PMB44-2Pauley grounded out to second.
05:45:14 PMT54-2Busch doubled to right.
05:46:52 PMT54-2Bregman grounded out to pitcher.
05:49:36 PMT54-2Happ struck out swinging.
05:51:50 PMT55-2Hoerner singled to right, Busch scored.
05:54:31 PMT55-2Vodnik relieved Gusto
05:55:35 PMT55-2Ramirez flied out to right.
06:00:18 PMB55-2Sanoja singled to center.
06:02:12 PMB55-2Stowers struck out swinging.
06:02:46 PMB55-2Hernández popped out to second.
06:05:40 PMB55-2Thielbar relieved Assad
06:07:23 PMB55-4Conine homered to right (430 feet), Sanoja scored.
06:09:51 PMB55-4Lopez walked.
06:12:36 PMB55-4Marsee flied out to center.
06:16:34 PMT65-4Conforto singled to left.
06:17:56 PMT65-4Amaya hit sacrifice bunt to third, Conforto to second.
06:20:58 PMT65-4Faucher relieved Vodnik
06:23:26 PMT65-4Crow-Armstrong grounded out to second, Conforto to third.
06:26:17 PMT65-4Suzuki walked.
06:27:03 PMT66-4Busch singled to right, Conforto scored, Suzuki to third.
06:28:40 PMT66-4Bregman struck out swinging.
06:31:55 PMB66-4Caissie fouled out to third.
06:33:50 PMB66-4Mack struck out swinging.
06:35:50 PMB66-4Pauley struck out swinging.
06:38:05 PMT76-4Fulton relieved Faucher
06:39:13 PMT76-4Happ grounded out to pitcher.
06:40:32 PMT76-4Hoerner singled to right.
06:41:09 PMT76-4Ramirez flied out to right.
06:41:54 PMT76-4Shaw hit for Conforto
06:44:01 PMT76-4Shaw walked, Hoerner to second.
06:44:29 PMT76-4Amaya grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Shaw out at second.
06:47:20 PMB76-4Shaw as designated hitter.
06:47:20 PMB76-4Thornton relieved Thielbar
06:47:44 PMB76-4Sanoja grounded out to shortstop.
06:49:12 PMB76-5Stowers homered to center (442 feet).
06:50:01 PMB76-5Hernández hit by pitch.
06:50:54 PMB76-5Conine flied out to right.
06:52:39 PMB76-5Lopez hit by pitch, Hernández to second.
06:56:15 PMB76-5Rolison relieved Thornton
06:57:31 PMB76-5Marsee grounded out to second.
07:01:10 PMT86-5Crow-Armstrong struck out looking. Miami Marlins challenged: call on the field was overturned.
07:02:14 PMT86-5Suzuki grounded out to third.
07:03:02 PMT86-5Busch lined out to right.
07:05:34 PMB86-5Ramírez hit for Caissie
07:05:59 PMB86-5Ramírez struck out looking.
07:07:12 PMB86-5Ruiz hit for Mack
07:07:12 PMB86-5Ruiz doubled to center.
07:10:10 PMB86-5De Los Santos hit for Pauley
07:10:10 PMB86-5Zeferjahn relieved Rolison
07:11:01 PMB86-5De Los Santos grounded out to second, Ruiz to third.
07:11:32 PMB86-5Sanoja grounded out to third.
07:13:36 PMT96-5Ramírez catching.
07:13:36 PMT96-5Ruiz in right field.
07:13:36 PMT96-5Serna at second base.
07:13:36 PMT96-5Sanoja at third base.
07:13:36 PMT96-5Zuber relieved Fulton
07:15:42 PMT96-5Bregman walked.
07:19:05 PMT96-5Happ walked, Bregman to second.
07:22:04 PMT96-5Hoerner struck out swinging.
07:23:59 PMT96-5Ramirez struck out swinging.
07:25:05 PMT96-5Shaw flied out to left.
07:27:35 PMB96-5Stowers grounded out to second.
07:29:50 PMB96-5Hernández struck out swinging.
07:32:37 PMB96-5Conine walked. Miami Marlins challenged: call on the field was overturned.