Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers · V1 (legacy)
Sep 4, 2026, 8:05 PM EST · final score 7-6 · duration 3h 1m · 95 plays · 725 snapshots · 23 inflection points (through the last real play, inning 9 — nothing after the game actually ended is tradeable)
Team:
Each real market move is detected once per side of the binary contract (home up = away down) — showing inflection points referenced to the away team's contract.
Inning:
showing all innings · shift-click an inning to extend the range
kalshi (away team price)polymarket (away team price)inflection point
Inflection points (12)
08:38:00 PM · inning 2 (early) · 0 out
lead change
Triggering play: BATTER_HOME_RUN · 1 run(s) scored · scoring shape: scored_other · leverage 0.90
kalshi+5.0%delayed_continuation
polymarket+5.0%delayed_continuation
Leader: kalshi (14s lag)
08:47:18 PM · inning 3 (early) · 2 out
lead change
Triggering play: BATTER_HOME_RUN · 1 run(s) scored · scoring shape: single_play · leverage 0.90
polymarket-2.0%delayed_continuation
Leader: polymarket
09:07:00 PM · inning 4 (mid) · 3 out
lead change
Triggering play: BATTER_HOME_RUN · 1 run(s) scored · scoring shape: scored_other · leverage 1.00
kalshi+2.0%delayed_continuation
Leader: kalshi
09:08:15 PM · inning 4 (mid) · 3 out
lead change
Triggering play: BATTER_HOME_RUN · 1 run(s) scored · scoring shape: single_play · leverage 1.00
polymarket+2.0%delayed_continuation
Leader: polymarket
09:21:00 PM · inning 5 (mid) · 0 out
Triggering play: BATTER_GROUND_RULE_DOUBLE · 1 run(s) scored · scoring shape: single_play · leverage 0.19
kalshi+9.0%delayed_continuation
Leader: kalshi
09:22:11 PM · inning 5 (mid) · 0 out
Triggering play: BATTER_GROUND_RULE_DOUBLE · 1 run(s) scored · scoring shape: scored_other · leverage 0.11
polymarket+5.0%delayed_continuation
Leader: polymarket
10:14:00 PM · inning 7 (late) · 1 out
Triggering play: BATTER_HOME_RUN · 4 run(s) scored · scoring shape: single_play · leverage 0.54
kalshi-8.0%overreaction_reversion
polymarket-5.8%overreaction_reversion
Leader: kalshi (15s lag) · gap closed 0%
10:19:00 PM · inning 8 (late) · 0 out
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 0.54
kalshi-5.0%delayed_continuation
polymarket-2.0%delayed_continuation
Leader: kalshi (75s lag) · gap closed 0%
10:31:00 PM · inning 8 (late) · 3 out
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 0.54
kalshi+3.0%partial_reversion
Leader: kalshi
10:32:15 PM · inning 8 (late) · 0 out
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 0.54
polymarket+1.7%overreaction_reversion
Leader: polymarket
10:59:00 PM · inning 9 (final) · 0 out
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 0.24
kalshi-3.0%delayed_continuation
polymarket-1.4%sustained_move
Leader: kalshi (17s lag) · gap closed 94%
11:05:15 PM · inning 9 (final) · 3 out
Triggering play: BATTER_SACRIFICE_FLY · 1 run(s) scored · scoring shape: scored_other · leverage 0.40
kalshin/achoppy_indeterminate
polymarketn/achoppy_indeterminate
Leader: kalshi (15s lag) · gap closed 0%
Play-by-play (95 real plays)
08:09:25 PMT10-0Díaz lined out to center.
08:11:47 PMT10-0Aranda struck out swinging.
08:14:33 PMT10-0Caminero struck out swinging.
08:18:20 PMB10-0Pederson struck out looking. Tampa Bay Rays challenged: call on the field was overturned.
08:20:06 PMB10-0Seager singled to center.
08:21:49 PMB10-0Langford flied out to left.
08:24:48 PMB10-0Nimmo lined out to left.
08:27:30 PMT20-0Ahlstrom relieved Williams
08:27:30 PMT20-0Hicks grounded out to first.
08:29:01 PMT20-0Mesa Jr. lined out to left.
08:29:53 PMT20-0Simpson singled to left.
08:31:43 PMT20-0Mullins walked, Simpson to second.
08:33:33 PMT20-0Palacios hit by pitch, Mullins to second, Simpson to third.
08:35:24 PMT20-0Walls popped out to shortstop.
08:37:41 PMB20-1Duran homered to center (419 feet).
08:40:05 PMB20-1Burger walked.
08:40:40 PMB20-1Carter lined out to right.
08:41:54 PMB20-1Freeman grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Burger out at second.
08:44:09 PMT30-1Rocker relieved Ahlstrom
08:44:52 PMT30-1Díaz grounded out to shortstop.
08:45:38 PMT31-1Aranda homered to right center (412 feet).
08:48:18 PMT31-1Caminero struck out looking.
08:50:16 PMT31-1Hicks singled to center.
08:51:49 PMT31-1Mesa Jr. flied out to shortstop.
08:55:34 PMB31-1Díaz fouled out to first.
08:58:01 PMB31-1Pederson fouled out to left.
08:59:20 PMB31-1Seager struck out looking. Tampa Bay Rays challenged: call on the field was overturned.
09:03:46 PMT41-1Simpson lined out to center.
09:04:19 PMT41-1Mullins flied out to right.
09:05:28 PMT42-1Palacios homered to right (371 feet).
09:08:27 PMT42-1Walls struck out looking.
09:11:21 PMB42-1Langford lined out to left.
09:13:27 PMB42-1Nimmo lined out to first.
09:14:29 PMB42-1Duran grounded out to third.
09:17:55 PMT52-1Díaz doubled to right.
09:19:46 PMT53-1Aranda hit a ground rule double, Díaz scored.
09:21:25 PMT54-1Caminero doubled to left, Aranda scored.
09:23:02 PMT54-1Hicks popped out to second.
09:25:26 PMT55-1Mesa Jr. singled to center, Caminero scored on error, Mesa Jr. safe at second on fielding error by center fielder Carter.
09:26:02 PMT55-1Simpson reached on infield single to shortstop, Mesa Jr. to third.
09:28:38 PMT56-1Mullins grounded into double play, first to third to shortstop, Mesa Jr. scored, Simpson out at third in rundown.
09:31:06 PMB56-1Burger reached on infield single to second. Texas Rangers challenged: call on the field was overturned.
09:34:25 PMB56-1Carter struck out swinging.
09:36:52 PMB56-1Freeman fouled out to third.
09:37:37 PMB56-1Díaz grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Burger out at second.
09:41:13 PMT66-1Palacios flied out to center.
09:42:01 PMT66-1Walls flied out to center.
09:42:33 PMT66-1Díaz singled to left.
09:44:14 PMT66-1Aranda struck out swinging.
09:46:58 PMB66-1Pederson grounded out to first.
09:47:48 PMB66-1Seager singled to center.
09:49:44 PMB66-1Langford flied out to center.
09:52:03 PMB66-1Nimmo struck out looking.
09:55:08 PMT76-1Caminero grounded out to first.
09:56:14 PMT76-1Hicks fouled out to third.
09:56:47 PMT76-1Mesa Jr. flied out to center.
10:00:41 PMB76-1Duran grounded out to second.
10:01:54 PMB76-1Burger walked.
10:04:04 PMB76-1Carter singled to center, Burger to third.
10:06:37 PMB76-1Cleavinger relieved Martinez
10:08:39 PMB76-1Freeman walked, Carter to second.
10:12:48 PMB76-5Díaz homered to left center (384 feet), Burger scored, Carter scored and Freeman scored.
10:13:49 PMB76-5Foscue hit for Pederson
10:14:14 PMB76-5Foscue singled to center.
10:17:08 PMB76-5Booser relieved Cleavinger
10:18:06 PMB76-5Seager grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Foscue out at second.
10:18:30 PMT86-5Foscue as designated hitter.
10:18:30 PMT86-5Alexander relieved Rocker
10:22:30 PMT86-5Simpson struck out looking.
10:23:39 PMT86-5Mullins flied out to right.
10:25:39 PMT86-5Palacios grounded out to first.
10:27:57 PMB86-5Kelly relieved Booser
10:29:14 PMB86-5Langford grounded out to pitcher.
10:29:46 PMB86-5Nimmo grounded out to second.
10:31:55 PMB86-5Duran grounded out to second.
10:34:31 PMT96-5Walls grounded out to third.
10:35:07 PMT96-5Silseth relieved Alexander
10:37:19 PMT96-5Díaz singled to right.
10:38:10 PMT96-5Mateo ran for Díaz
10:38:10 PMT96-5Mateo stole second.
10:39:58 PMT96-5Aranda hit by pitch.
10:42:45 PMT97-5Caminero singled to center, Mateo scored, Aranda to second.
10:43:58 PMT97-5Macko relieved Silseth
10:45:37 PMT97-5Vilade hit for Hicks
10:48:46 PMT97-5Vilade fouled out to third.
10:50:45 PMT97-5Mesa Jr. struck out swinging.
10:52:46 PMB97-5Mateo as designated hitter.
10:52:46 PMB97-5Piper catching.
10:52:46 PMB97-5Baker relieved Kelly
10:55:56 PMB97-5Burger walked.
10:58:50 PMB97-5Carter walked, Burger to second.
11:02:45 PMB97-5Lopez hit for Freeman
11:02:45 PMB97-5Wells relieved Baker
11:03:36 PMB97-5Lopez hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Carter to second, Burger to third.
11:04:23 PMB97-6Díaz hit sacrifice fly to left, Burger scored, Carter to third.