Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers · Unified (V2)

Sep 5, 2026, 9:10 PM EST

Game summary

Final

Washington Nationals 5 – 6 Los Angeles Dodgers

Length

2h 53m · 9 innings

Market at first pitch

away contract opened at —

Winner vs. opening market

Los Angeles Dodgers won

14%

of the game's market movement tracked a real swing

coincided with a real high-drama play (no score change)

moved opposite a real game swing

distinct market moments (away)

Team:

full game: -26.5 points net for kalshi away · 93% of scored plays confirmed base state structurally

Block type:

Inning:

Explain each block

showing all innings · shift-click an inning to extend the range · drag the dial or use Prev/Next to step through blocks

Block 1 of 50

kalshi · away contract09:10 PM – 09:20 PM

Top 1 · 1 out

stable period37% → 34%

price went from 37% to 34% — a net change of -2.5pp (percentage points of the contract's own price) over 10m (10 price observations)

reached as far as +3.5pp at its peak, then gave back 29% of that peak by the block's end (reversion of +1.0pp)

data quality: complete

no scoring context

real plays happened during this block, but none were high-drama or changed the score/lead -- the market moved with no notable event to compare against

38 play state(s) in window · differential moved +0

Real plays during this block (5)

09:10 PM20-0Wood flied out to center.

09:12 PM20-0Lile flied out to right.

09:13 PM20-0Ortiz lined out to third.

09:17 PM20-0Edman struck out looking.

09:18 PM30-0Freeman hit by pitch.

Contract

kalshi · away

Inning

Top 1

Score at block start

0-0

Base state at block start

empty

kalshi (away team price)real score/lead change (dot size = leverage)aligned with gameopposed to game

Market moments by inning (9 total)

Every sustained price swing on the chart above, grouped by the inning it happened in and read as one story even when multiple providers each detected their own version of it. Score and base state are shown directly on each card. Click a moment to zoom the chart to it.

Inning 1

0-0 → 1-2

Inning 2

1-2

Inning 4

1-2 → 3-2

Inning 5

3-2 → 4-2

Inning 7

4-2 → 4-5

Inning 8

4-5 → 4-6

Summary

9 distinct market moments for the away side, fused from 25 raw per-provider trend chains and 188 1-minute market blocks.
14% of blocks tracked a real score/lead change, 5% coincided with a real high-drama play with no score change, 0% moved against the game, and the rest (81%) drifted with no notable event to compare against.
93% of this game's 92 scored plays (86 of them) had their base-runner state read directly from ESPN's structural data, not inferred from text — every other row in the game (pitches, at-bat markers) correctly inherits that same state rather than needing its own read. 6 scored play(s) had no readable base state from either source (a genuine ESPN coverage gap).

analysis market-v2-alpha-1:replay-75bdc23f2356 · descriptive only, never a causal claim.