Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds · Unified (V2)

Sep 5, 2026, 6:40 PM EST

Game summary

Final

Milwaukee Brewers 3 – 5 Cincinnati Reds

Length

5h 9m · 9 innings

Market at first pitch

away contract opened at 59% (favorite)

Winner vs. opening market

Cincinnati Reds won — the opening underdog

18%

of the game's market movement tracked a real swing

coincided with a real high-drama play (no score change)

moved opposite a real game swing

distinct market moments (away)

Team:

full game: +6.0 points net for kalshi away · 91% of scored plays confirmed base state structurally

Block type:

Inning:

Explain each block

showing all innings · shift-click an inning to extend the range · drag the dial or use Prev/Next to step through blocks

Block 1 of 17

kalshi · away contract06:46 PM – 06:47 PM

Top 1 · 2 out

material impulse54% → 65%

price went from 54% to 65% — a net change of +11.0pp (percentage points of the contract's own price) over 1m (1 price observations)

reached as far as +11.0pp at its peak, then gave back 0% of that peak by the block's end (reversion of +0.0pp)

data quality: complete

aligned

the team that benefited from this block's price direction is the same team the game actually favored over this window

4 play state(s) in window · 1 scored · 1 lead change(s) · differential moved -1

price direction favored away · game favored away

In the game during this block

leverage 0.90 (lead_change)

“Milwaukee Brewers takes the lead 1-0, top of the inning 1”

Real plays during this block (1)

06:46 PM51-0Contreras homered to center (401 feet).

Contract

kalshi · away

Inning

Top 1

Score at block start

0-0

Base state at block start

empty

kalshi (away team price)real score/lead change (dot size = leverage)aligned with gameopposed to game

Market moments by inning (3 total)

Every sustained price swing on the chart above, grouped by the inning it happened in and read as one story even when multiple providers each detected their own version of it. Score and base state are shown directly on each card. Click a moment to zoom the chart to it.

Inning 1

0-0 → 1-0

Inning 2

1-1 → 2-1

Inning 4

2-1

Summary

3 distinct market moments for the away side, fused from 7 raw per-provider trend chains and 70 1-minute market blocks.
18% of blocks tracked a real score/lead change, 6% coincided with a real high-drama play with no score change, 0% moved against the game, and the rest (76%) drifted with no notable event to compare against.
91% of this game's 94 scored plays (86 of them) had their base-runner state read directly from ESPN's structural data, not inferred from text — every other row in the game (pitches, at-bat markers) correctly inherits that same state rather than needing its own read. 8 scored play(s) had no readable base state from either source (a genuine ESPN coverage gap).

analysis market-v2-alpha-1:replay-1f6593835fa8 · descriptive only, never a causal claim.