Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres · V1 (legacy)
Sep 19, 2026, 8:40 PM EST · final score 6-7 · duration 3h 51m · 124 plays · 924 snapshots · 31 inflection points (through the last real play, inning 10 — nothing after the game actually ended is tradeable)
Team:
Each real market move is detected once per side of the binary contract (home up = away down) — showing inflection points referenced to the away team's contract.
Inning:
showing all innings · shift-click an inning to extend the range
kalshi (away team price)polymarket (away team price)inflection point
Inflection points (16)
09:04:00 PM · inning 2 (early) · 0 out
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 0.50
kalshi+15.0%delayed_continuation
Leader: kalshi
09:08:00 PM · inning 2 (early) · 2 out
Triggering play: BATTER_HOME_RUN · 2 run(s) scored · scoring shape: scored_other · leverage 0.20
kalshi-1.5%delayed_continuation
polymarket+0.5%overreaction_reversion
Leader: polymarket (-27s lag) · gap closed 60%
09:20:00 PM · inning 2 (early) · 2 out
Triggering play: BATTER_HOME_RUN · 1 run(s) scored · scoring shape: single_play · leverage 0.17
kalshi+2.0%overreaction_reversion
polymarket+2.0%overreaction_reversion
Leader: kalshi
09:35:00 PM · inning 3 (early) · 1 out
Triggering play: BATTER_DOUBLE · 1 run(s) scored · scoring shape: single_play · leverage 0.10
kalshi+7.0%delayed_continuation
polymarket+6.0%sustained_move
Leader: kalshi (15s lag) · gap closed 100%
09:46:17 PM · inning 3 (early) · 0 out
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 0.07
polymarket+7.0%overreaction_reversion
Leader: polymarket
09:54:00 PM · inning 3 (early) · 1 out
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 0.13
kalshi-5.5%overreaction_reversion
Leader: kalshi
09:55:15 PM · inning 3 (early) · 2 out
Triggering play: BATTER_SACRIFICE_FLY · 2 run(s) scored · scoring shape: scored_other · leverage 0.25
polymarket+5.0%sustained_move
Leader: polymarket
10:08:00 PM · inning 4 (mid) · 0 out
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 0.29
kalshi-13.0%partial_reversion
polymarket-13.0%partial_reversion
Leader: kalshi (14s lag) · gap closed 100%
10:11:00 PM · inning 4 (mid) · 1 out
lead change
Triggering play: BATTER_HOME_RUN · 1 run(s) scored · scoring shape: single_play · leverage 1.00
kalshi+6.0%delayed_continuation
Leader: kalshi
10:59:00 PM · inning 6 (mid) · 3 out
lead change
Triggering play: BATTER_DOUBLE · 1 run(s) scored · scoring shape: single_play · leverage 1.00
kalshi+2.0%overreaction_reversion
polymarket+3.0%delayed_continuation
Leader: kalshi (14s lag) · gap closed 0%
11:41:00 PM · inning 8 (late) · 1 out
lead change
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 1.00
kalshi-9.0%delayed_continuation
polymarket+4.0%overreaction_reversion
Leader: kalshi (10s lag)
11:46:00 PM · inning 8 (late) · 2 out
lead change
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_real_event · leverage 1.00
kalshi-18.0%sustained_move
Leader: kalshi
11:47:13 PM · inning 8 (late) · 3 out
lead change
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 1.00
polymarket-8.0%sustained_move
Leader: polymarket
12:02:00 AM · inning 9 (final) · 2 out
lead change
Triggering play: BATTER_HOME_RUN · 1 run(s) scored · scoring shape: scored_other · leverage 1.00
kalshi-4.0%sustained_move
polymarket-4.0%sustained_move
Leader: kalshi (15s lag) · gap closed 0%
12:14:00 AM · inning 9 (final) · 3 out
lead change
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 1.00
kalshi-11.0%delayed_continuation
Leader: kalshi
12:20:00 AM · inning 10 (final) · 2 out
lead change
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 1.00
kalshi-6.0%delayed_continuation
polymarket-2.0%overreaction_reversion
Leader: polymarket (-47s lag) · gap closed 0%
Play-by-play (124 real plays)
08:42:41 PMT10-0Lopez lined out to left.
08:43:58 PMT10-0Hernández walked.
08:45:33 PMT10-0Stowers struck out swinging.
08:47:36 PMT10-0Hernández stole second.
08:49:09 PMT10-0Sanoja walked.
08:49:55 PMT10-0Edwards grounded out to first.
08:52:54 PMB10-0Tatis Jr. grounded out to third.
08:53:48 PMB10-0Harris flied out to center.
08:54:25 PMB10-0Machado singled to left.
08:55:03 PMB10-0France singled to left, Machado to second.
08:56:25 PMB10-0Merrill singled to right, France to second, Machado to third.
08:58:45 PMB10-0Campusano struck out swinging.
09:01:46 PMT20-0Marsee singled to left.
09:03:43 PMT20-0Ramírez singled to left, Marsee to third.
09:04:42 PMT21-0Mack grounded into fielder's choice to second, Marsee scored, Ramírez out at second.
09:05:45 PMT21-0Ruiz hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Mack to second.
09:06:30 PMT23-0Lopez homered to left center (367 feet), Mack scored.
09:08:09 PMT23-0Hernández walked.
09:13:09 PMT23-0Stowers walked, Hernández to second.
09:14:36 PMT23-0Sanoja lined out to center.
09:17:17 PMB23-0Cronenworth grounded out to second.
09:19:00 PMB23-1Taylor homered to left (388 feet).
09:21:01 PMB23-1Fermin popped out to first.
09:22:15 PMB23-1Tatis Jr. hit by pitch.
09:23:10 PMB23-1Tatis Jr. stole second.
09:25:15 PMB23-1Harris struck out swinging.
09:28:46 PMT33-1Edwards struck out looking. Miami Marlins challenged: call on the field was upheld.
09:31:32 PMT33-1Marsee walked.
09:34:34 PMT34-1Ramírez doubled to left, Marsee scored.
09:35:51 PMT34-1Mack grounded out to pitcher, Ramírez to third.
09:36:57 PMT35-1Ruiz singled to left, Ramírez scored.
09:39:41 PMT35-1Ruiz caught stealing third, pitcher to third.
09:44:45 PMB35-1Machado singled to center.
09:45:56 PMB35-1France singled to left, Machado to second.
09:48:44 PMB35-1Merrill struck out swinging.
09:51:04 PMB35-1Campusano walked, France to second, Machado to third.
09:53:24 PMB35-2Cronenworth walked, Machado scored, Campusano to second, France to third.
09:54:59 PMB35-3France scored on a balk, Cronenworth to second on a balk, Campusano to third on a balk.
09:54:59 PMB35-4Taylor hit sacrifice fly to center, Campusano scored, Cronenworth to third.
09:56:55 PMB35-4Fermin lined out to center.
09:57:52 PMT45-4Vásquez relieved Mize
10:01:17 PMT45-4Lopez lined out to shortstop.
10:04:28 PMT45-4Hernández singled to left.
10:05:19 PMT45-4Stowers singled to right, Hernández to third.
10:06:21 PMT45-4Sanoja lined into double play, to first, Stowers out at first. San Diego Padres challenged: call on the field was overturned.
10:10:02 PMB45-5Tatis Jr. homered to center (410 feet).
10:11:26 PMB45-5Harris grounded out to shortstop.
10:12:19 PMB45-5Machado popped out to second.
10:14:19 PMB45-5France grounded out to third.
10:18:58 PMT55-5Edwards struck out looking.
10:19:32 PMT55-5Marsee singled to left.
10:20:50 PMT55-5Ramírez struck out swinging.
10:26:16 PMT55-5Mack grounded out to second.
10:29:59 PMB55-5Merrill struck out swinging.
10:31:17 PMB55-5Campusano flied out to right.
10:33:34 PMB55-5Cronenworth singled to center.
10:34:08 PMB55-5Cronenworth stole second.
10:35:50 PMB55-5Taylor walked.
10:38:09 PMB55-5Petersen relieved Pérez
10:40:11 PMB55-5Fermin struck out swinging.
10:40:46 PMT65-5Rodriguez relieved Vásquez
10:44:07 PMT65-5Ruiz flied out to left.
10:46:08 PMT65-5Lopez struck out swinging.
10:47:20 PMT65-5Hernández struck out swinging.
10:51:23 PMB65-5Tatis Jr. struck out swinging.
10:53:01 PMB65-5Harris doubled to left.
10:55:08 PMB65-5Machado struck out swinging.
10:58:03 PMB65-6France doubled to right, Harris scored.
11:00:03 PMB65-6Merrill struck out swinging.
11:01:05 PMT75-6Matsui relieved Rodriguez
11:05:16 PMT75-6Stowers popped out to third.
11:05:58 PMT75-6Sanoja popped out to first.
11:10:11 PMT75-6Edwards walked.
11:15:13 PMT75-6Marsee singled to right, Edwards to third.
11:15:30 PMT75-6Morejon relieved Matsui
11:19:57 PMT75-6Ramírez struck out swinging.
11:21:45 PMB75-6Pauley at third base.
11:21:45 PMB75-6Faucher relieved Petersen
11:22:26 PMB75-6Sanoja at second base.
11:24:20 PMB75-6Campusano walked.
11:26:19 PMB75-6Cronenworth grounded into fielder's choice to first, Campusano out at second.
11:27:51 PMB75-6Taylor struck out swinging.
11:30:39 PMB75-6Cronenworth stole second.
11:31:10 PMB75-6Fermin grounded out to second.
11:32:44 PMT85-6Tatis Jr. in right field.
11:32:44 PMT85-6Harris in left field.
11:32:44 PMT85-6Cronenworth at second base.
11:32:44 PMT85-6Song at shortstop.
11:34:11 PMT85-6De Los Santos hit for Mack
11:35:17 PMT85-6De Los Santos struck out swinging.
11:38:08 PMT85-6Ruiz walked.
11:39:04 PMT85-6Ruiz stole second.
11:40:24 PMT85-6Ruiz stole third.
11:41:23 PMT85-6Lopez walked.
11:44:42 PMT85-6Miller relieved Morejon
11:46:47 PMT85-6Hernández struck out swinging, Lopez stole second.
11:48:35 PMT85-6Stowers struck out looking.
11:50:40 PMB85-6Navarreto catching.
11:50:40 PMB85-6De Los Santos at first base.
11:50:40 PMB85-6Vodnik relieved Faucher
11:51:51 PMB85-6Tatis Jr. flied out to right.
11:52:27 PMB85-6Harris grounded out to shortstop.
11:54:59 PMB85-6Machado lined out to right.
11:55:54 PMT95-6Bowen in left field.
11:59:04 PMT95-6Sanoja struck out swinging.
11:59:14 PMT95-6Conine hit for Pauley
12:00:36 AMT96-6Conine homered to right (427 feet).
12:02:45 AMT96-6Marsee grounded out to shortstop.
12:04:11 AMT96-6Ramírez struck out swinging.
12:06:24 AMB96-6Sanoja at third base.
12:06:24 AMB96-6Serna at second base.
12:07:22 AMB96-6France grounded out to shortstop.
12:09:24 AMB96-6Merrill walked.
12:12:46 AMB96-6Campusano lined out to left.
12:14:16 AMB96-6Cronenworth struck out swinging.
12:14:31 AMT106-6Morgan relieved Miller
12:18:11 AMT106-6De Los Santos struck out swinging.
12:19:21 AMT106-6Ruiz struck out swinging.
12:20:15 AMT106-6Lopez intentionally walked.
12:24:53 AMT106-6Hernández lined out to center.
12:27:13 AMB106-6Ekness relieved Vodnik
12:28:49 AMB106-6Cronenworth to third on wild pitch by Ekness.
12:29:20 AMB106-6Song struck out swinging.
12:29:42 AMB106-6Salas hit for Fermin