Athletics @ Seattle Mariners · V1 (legacy)
Sep 4, 2026, 10:10 PM EST · final score 7-6 · duration 2h 51m · 95 plays · 685 snapshots · 28 inflection points (through the last real play, inning 9 — nothing after the game actually ended is tradeable)
Team:
Each real market move is detected once per side of the binary contract (home up = away down) — showing inflection points referenced to the away team's contract.
Inning:
showing all innings · shift-click an inning to extend the range
kalshi (away team price)polymarket (away team price)inflection point
Inflection points (14)
10:37:00 PM · inning 2 (early) · 1 out
Triggering play: BATTER_DOUBLE · 1 run(s) scored · scoring shape: scored_other · leverage 0.15
kalshi+12.0%delayed_continuation
Leader: kalshi
10:38:10 PM · inning 2 (early) · 1 out
Triggering play: BATTER_DOUBLE · 1 run(s) scored · scoring shape: scored_other · leverage 0.15
polymarket+10.5%sustained_move
Leader: polymarket
10:46:00 PM · inning 3 (early) · 1 out
lead change
Triggering play: BATTER_HOME_RUN · 1 run(s) scored · scoring shape: scored_other · leverage 0.90
kalshi+26.0%delayed_continuation
Leader: kalshi
10:47:12 PM · inning 3 (early) · 1 out
lead change
Triggering play: BATTER_HOME_RUN · 1 run(s) scored · scoring shape: single_play · leverage 0.90
polymarket+37.5%delayed_continuation
Leader: polymarket
10:52:00 PM · inning 3 (early) · 1 out
Triggering play: BATTER_HOME_RUN · 2 run(s) scored · scoring shape: scored_other · leverage 0.10
kalshi-1.0%sustained_move
polymarket+0.0%choppy_indeterminate
Leader: polymarket (-32s lag) · gap closed 89%
11:00:00 PM · inning 3 (early) · 1 out
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 0.10
kalshi-23.0%delayed_continuation
polymarket-21.0%delayed_continuation
Leader: kalshi (15s lag) · gap closed 0%
11:04:00 PM · inning 3 (early) · 2 out
lead change
Triggering play: BATTER_HOME_RUN · 2 run(s) scored · scoring shape: scored_other · leverage 0.90
kalshi-3.0%overreaction_reversion
Leader: kalshi
11:06:09 PM · inning 3 (early) · 2 out
lead change
Triggering play: BATTER_HOME_RUN · 2 run(s) scored · scoring shape: scored_other · leverage 0.90
polymarket+5.0%partial_reversion
Leader: polymarket
11:32:25 PM · inning 5 (mid) · 0 out
lead change
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 1.00
kalshi+13.0%delayed_continuation
polymarket-9.5%overreaction_reversion
Leader: kalshi (25s lag) · gap closed 100%
11:37:12 PM · inning 5 (mid) · 2 out
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 0.17
kalshi+2.0%sustained_move
polymarket+2.0%sustained_move
Leader: kalshi (12s lag)
12:41:00 AM · inning 8 (late) · 1 out
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 0.34
kalshi+9.0%delayed_continuation
Leader: kalshi
12:43:12 AM · inning 8 (late) · 2 out
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 0.34
polymarket+21.0%delayed_continuation
Leader: polymarket
12:46:00 AM · inning 8 (late) · 3 out
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 0.34
kalshi+9.0%sustained_move
Leader: kalshi
12:48:12 AM · inning 8 (late) · 0 out
No qualifying triggering play identified · scoring shape: no_score · leverage 0.34
polymarket-2.0%delayed_continuation
Leader: polymarket
Play-by-play (95 real plays)
10:12:56 PMT10-0Bolte struck out looking.
10:14:18 PMT10-0McNeil singled to left.
10:15:45 PMT10-0McNeil picked off first.
10:17:16 PMT10-0Gelof struck out swinging.
10:20:28 PMB10-0Arozarena grounded out to third.
10:22:16 PMB10-0Canzone flied out to center.
10:23:10 PMB10-0Rodríguez lined out to third.
10:26:28 PMT20-0Butler struck out swinging.
10:28:35 PMT20-0Cortes struck out swinging.
10:29:22 PMT20-0Heim grounded out to shortstop.
10:32:40 PMB20-0Raleigh walked.
10:33:36 PMB20-0Naylor grounded out to pitcher, Raleigh to second.
10:35:39 PMB20-1Young doubled to right, Raleigh scored.
10:36:44 PMB20-2Crawford singled to right, Young scored.
10:38:30 PMB20-2Montes grounded into double play, third to shortstop to first, Crawford out at second.
10:40:27 PMT31-2Muncy homered to left (349 feet).
10:43:09 PMT31-2Walton struck out swinging.
10:44:20 PMT32-2Williams homered to left (356 feet).
10:47:58 PMT32-2Bolte walked.
10:50:26 PMT34-2McNeil homered to right (362 feet), Bolte scored.
10:51:30 PMT35-2Gelof homered to left (398 feet).
10:53:24 PMT35-2Butler lined out to first.
10:55:19 PMT35-2Cortes struck out swinging.
10:58:41 PMB35-2Rodden singled to center.
10:59:12 PMB35-2Arozarena hit by pitch, Rodden to second.
11:00:54 PMB35-2Canzone lined out to left, Rodden to third.
11:02:37 PMB35-3Rodríguez grounded out to shortstop, Rodden scored, Arozarena to second.
11:03:25 PMB35-5Raleigh homered to right center (373 feet), Arozarena scored.
11:04:28 PMB35-5Naylor doubled to left.
11:06:41 PMB35-5Basso relieved Morris
11:07:11 PMB35-5Young grounded out to shortstop.
11:11:00 PMT45-5Heim struck out looking.
11:12:34 PMT45-5Muncy struck out swinging.
11:13:42 PMT45-5Walton grounded out to second.
11:17:12 PMB45-5Crawford walked.
11:17:57 PMB45-5Montes grounded into double play, first to shortstop to first, Crawford out at second.
11:19:28 PMB45-5Rodden singled to center.
11:20:42 PMB45-5Rodden picked off and caught stealing second.
11:24:47 PMT55-5Williams walked.
11:26:39 PMT55-5Bolte struck out looking.
11:28:32 PMT55-5Williams stole second.
11:30:08 PMT55-5McNeil struck out swinging.
11:31:12 PMT55-5Williams to third on wild pitch by Gilbert.
11:32:32 PMT56-5Gelof tripled to right, Williams scored.
11:36:52 PMT57-5Butler singled to center, Gelof scored.
11:39:44 PMT57-5Cortes singled to right, Butler to second.
11:43:42 PMT57-5Ward in right field.
11:43:42 PMT57-5Domínguez relieved Gilbert
11:44:33 PMT57-5Butler to third on wild pitch by Domínguez.
11:45:04 PMT57-5Heim grounded out to first.
11:48:13 PMB57-5Arozarena grounded out to third.
11:49:29 PMB57-5Canzone singled to right.
11:51:17 PMB57-5Rodríguez flied out to right.
11:52:17 PMB57-5Raleigh flied out to second.
11:56:02 PMT67-5Muncy singled to left.
11:57:44 PMT67-5Walton fouled out to third.
11:58:40 PMT67-5Williams grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Muncy out at second.
12:01:03 AMB67-5Naylor singled to left.
12:01:54 AMB67-5Young grounded into fielder's choice to first, Naylor out at second.
12:03:16 AMB67-5Crawford fouled out to catcher.
12:05:46 AMB67-5Hartlieb relieved Basso
12:06:20 AMB67-5Ward grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Young out at second.
12:07:28 AMT77-5Ferrer relieved Domínguez
12:09:57 AMT77-5Bolte walked.
12:11:13 AMT77-5McNeil grounded out to second, Bolte to second.
12:13:55 AMT77-5Gelof flied out to right.
12:15:55 AMT77-5Butler struck out looking.
12:18:32 AMB77-5Rodden flied out to right.
12:20:02 AMB77-5Arozarena struck out swinging.
12:21:33 AMB77-5Canzone grounded out to first.
12:22:58 AMT87-5Criswell relieved Ferrer
12:25:10 AMT87-5Cortes flied out to center.
12:27:01 AMT87-5Heim reached on infield single to second.
12:29:23 AMT87-5Muncy reached on infield single to third, Heim to second, Heim safe at third on throwing error by third baseman Rodden.
12:31:05 AMT87-5Walton lined out to shortstop.
12:33:05 AMT87-5Williams grounded out to shortstop.
12:35:17 AMB87-5Bolte in left field.
12:35:17 AMB87-5Clarke in center field.
12:35:17 AMB87-5Alvarado relieved Hartlieb
12:36:04 AMB87-5Rodríguez fouled out to third.
12:36:40 AMB87-5Raleigh hit a ground rule double.
12:40:57 AMB87-6Naylor singled to center, Raleigh scored.
12:42:44 AMB87-6Naylor to second on pickoff error by pitcher Alvarado.
12:44:32 AMB87-6Young lined out to third.
12:44:46 AMB87-6Crawford intentionally walked.
12:47:55 AMB87-6Ward popped out to shortstop.
12:50:09 AMT97-6Muñoz relieved Criswell
12:51:01 AMT97-6Bolte grounded out to second.
12:52:15 AMT97-6McNeil struck out swinging.
12:53:07 AMT97-6Gelof grounded out to shortstop.
12:54:31 AMB97-6Harris relieved Alvarado
12:55:06 AMB97-6Wisdom hit for Rodden
12:56:49 AMB97-6Wisdom struck out looking.
12:58:36 AMB97-6Arozarena walked.
01:00:18 AMB97-6Canzone grounded out to pitcher, Arozarena to second.